Archives 2000s >> 2013 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
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Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Invest 90L (xBarbara) Forecast Lounge
      #94319 - Thu May 30 2013 05:28 AM



As of 4:00 AM CDT, Tropical Depression Barbara was heading generally north at an estimated 8 MPH through the northern half of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, and is expected to enter the southern Gulf of Mexico later this morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to around 35 MPH, with stronger gusts.

Within the past few hours considerable deep convection has been redeveloping right atop and to the north of an apparently still intact Low Level Circulation Center, and it seems reasonable to assume that Barbara probably has a better than 50-50 shot of becoming an officiated Atlantic basin tropical cyclone, which would make it the first of the season.

Because Barbara has now become an Atlantic basin interest, we will open up a lounge at this time. This is where to put our mid to long range thoughts on Barbara's potential for further development, intensity, and forecast track. Longer range model output discussions are also appropriate here.

Edited to reflect downgrade to remnants.

Edited by cieldumort (Fri May 31 2013 02:23 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Invest 90L (xBarbara) Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #94339 - Sat Jun 01 2013 01:20 PM

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1124 AM EDT SAT JUN 01 2013

VALID 12Z TUE JUN 04 2013 - 12Z SAT JUN 08 2013


...MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...


RELIED ON THE 06Z/01 GEFS MEAN MASS FIELDS AS A GUIDE FOR THE
FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7, CHOSEN BECAUSE IT BEST
REPRESENTED CONTINUITY AND THE GROWING CERTAINTY IN SOME OF THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS POSING THE GREATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER THREATS. ALL
THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THE CONTINUATION OF AN
UNSEASONABLY SUPPRESSED POLAR JET ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AT THE
MEDIUM RANGE--ATTENDANT TO THE AT LEAST MODEST ONGOING BLOCKING AT
HIGH LATITUDES. THE MEAN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED OVER
THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION, AND THAT IS WHERE THE WIDEST SPREAD
RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD.

SUPER-MOISTURE-PACKED
TROPICAL AIR CIRCULATING AROUND A DEEP-LAYER VORTEX OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO WASH INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA AS THE PASSAGE
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ELONGATES
THE GULF CIRCULATION. ALL THE MODELS BREAK OFF A CHUNK OF THIS
TROPICAL SWIRL AND TRACK IT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, THEN UP
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THE GEM GLOBAL CONTINUES TO PRESENT AN UNREALISTIC
EMERGENCE OF A FULL-BLOWN TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, TRACKING IT ACROSS FLORIDA THEN UP THE ATLANTIC COAST
PLAIN--DIRECTLY ASTRIDE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE. THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME IS A JUICY FRONTAL WAVE THAT SHOULD KEEP MOST OF
THE HIGHEST MOISTURE-CONTENT AIR EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST NORTH
OF JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA. THE 0.25KM ECMWF PUSHES A SLUG OF 2.50+"
PRECIPITABLE WATER-LADEN AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA, INCLUDING
THE KEYS, NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, SUPPORTING MANY INCHES
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. WILL BE COORDINATING WITH THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THE FIRST MEDIUM-RANGE HOTLINE CALL
OF THE YEAR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO DISCUSS ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS WELL AS ANY OTHERS OVER THE NEARBY
OCEANS.


CISCO


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danielwAdministrator
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Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
GOM Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #94342 - Sun Jun 02 2013 03:41 PM

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
248 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF MON...THEN LOW TO AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO POSITION AND INTENSITY OF FORECAST SURFACE
LOW...CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE TOWARD ECMWF TRACK BUT SLOWER MOTION
OF THE GFS....

.....GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET ARE SUGGESTING
A GENERAL TRACK TO THE NE OF THE BROAD LOW PRES AREA AFTER ABOUT
MON. THE 12 UTC GFS TENDS TO LATCH ON TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE
CONVECTION FEEDBACK FROM CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF AND PULL IT
TO THE N TUE AND WED. THE GFS STILL APPEARS FASTER THEN THE ECMWF
THROUGH WED NIGHT...BUT IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE 10M WINDS.
THE ECMWF BECOMES FASTER IN TAKING THE LOW NE ACROSS W CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY THU. EVENING. AT THAT TIME... THE GFS STILL HOLDS BACK
THE LOW OVER THE NE GULF INTO FRI. AFTERNOON. IT THEN MOVES THE
LOW INLAND N FLORIDA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THE UKMET
IS FARTHER TO THE W THAN THE REST OF GUIDANCE ENVELOP DURING THE
PERIOD...WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL IS CONSISTENTLY TO STRONG IN
DEVELOPING THE LOW...BUT VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS IN TRACK THROUGH
WED NIGHT BEFORE ACCELERATING THE LOW IN A NNE DIRECTION MOVING IT
INLAND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THU AFTERNOON.

INTERESTINGLY...THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE KEEPS THE LOW IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE THROUGH DAY 5 (FRI)...WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE TAKES
IT NE TO ACROSS N FLORIDA FRI NIGHT. IN ANY EVENT AMPLE MOISTURE
OVER THE SE GULF WILL AND ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SCATTERED TOP NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...SOME WHICH MAY BE ATTENDED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS.


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