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cieldumort
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Invest 92L Forecast Lounge
      #94437 - Thu Jun 06 2013 06:50 PM


Above: Invest 92L. Credit: NRL

A vigorous tropical wave in the central Atlantic is now being tracked as Invest 92L.

92L, our third Invest since the season began on June 1, is presently centered near 13.5N 46.5W, with movement to the west-northwest at about 10-15 MPH, with maximum sustained winds estimated to be about 35 MPH.

A low pressure center with considerable cyclonic flow is associated with the wave, and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are traveling within and just behind it.

92L is actually the leading rush of a healthy slug of TPW (Total Precipitable Water), which can clearly be seen in the image below courtesy of CIMSS - Total Precipitable Water (MIMIC-TPW).


Above: SSMI/SSMIS/TMI-derived Total Precipitable Water - North Atlantic

There is but one very serious impediment keeping 92L from quickly becoming a tropical cyclone, and that is that it has, and is still, running head-on into a region of very unfavorable upper-level winds, and will be doing so for some time to come.

Should 92L survive this onslaught, and it might given its inner structure and the cavalry of tropical air coming up behind it, this one could also become something of real interest in a couple of more days.

This is where to put mid to long range forecasts on 92L's potential for development, intensity, and forecast track. 92L-related longer range model output discussions are also appropriate here.


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