Archives 2000s >> 2013 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
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TD2 Forecast Lounge
      #94457 - Mon Jun 17 2013 02:09 PM



A healthy tropical wave we have been following for several days in the western Atlantic, formerly identified as Invest 93L, has gained sufficient organization Monday morning to be classified as a tropical depression, and so NHC has started advisories on Tropical Depression Two.

TD2 is presently in the extreme northwestern Caribbean, very nearly inland over Belize. TWO is forecast to move inland over Belize & the Yucatan as a depression, survive the trip over land relatively intact, and reemerge in the Bay of Campeche - the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico - where it is forecast by NHC to ultimately strengthen into a minimal tropical storm prior to a final landfall somewhere along the extreme southeastern coast of Mexico, perhaps near the city of Veracruz.

It should be noted that the Bay of Campeche can be uniquely supportive of rapid development, as the wind pattern often normally tends to favor cyclonic flow, the waters are very warm, and the curvature of the land also encourages convective banding, among other things, that together as a package distinguishes this region.

This is where to put mid to long range forecasts on TD2's potential for development, intensity, and forecast track. TD2-related longer range model output discussions are also appropriate here.


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