FLHurricane.com: Dorian Likely to Weaken Today

7:30 AM EDT 26 July 2013 Update

Tropical Storm Dorian has had an injection of moisture cut of, and is about to ply into a relatively dry area ahead of it, combined with the small size and these factors, Dorian could fall apart today and open up into a wave, if it does, it may recover later when conditions aren't quite as hostile. Dorian still has a close low level circulation, and is small so swings in intensity like this were anticipated.

If it manages to survive then it would likely continue along the west northwest path, and skirt just to the north of the Caribbean islands early next week, so it will need to be watched for a while.

Shear is only a mildproblem, and water temperature is not a problem at all for the system.

10:30 AM EDT 24 July 2013 Update
Tropical Storm Dorian forms in the Eastern Atlantic, still moving generally west northwest at a quick rate. Dorian is a relatively small storm and likely will see quite a few intensity changes over the next few days, both up and down.

3:45AM EDT 24 July 2013 Update
Invest 98L has become a tropical depression, the fourth of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Movement is to the west-northwest at around 20 MPH, and this general track is forecast to hold for several days.

It is very likely that FOUR becomes TS Dorian today. Near term, conditions for rapid development are not expected, but it is possible that FOUR becomes the first hurricane of the season sometime this week. The average date of formation of the first hurricane of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is August 10.

Ciel

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Original Post
After a quiet few weeks after Chantal, another wave bears watching out in the far eastern Atlantic. Being tracked as "98L" it will likely move generally westward and has a low to moderate chance to develop over the long haul. Other areas may pop up closer before it makes it all the way westward.

Since it is so far out and has quite a bit of hurdles to go through, and only marginally favorable conditions both in the atmosphere and with sea surface temperatures, it could remain weak for a while. Long term models keep it going generally westward, so those in the northeastern Caribbean will want to follow the progress for this weekend. Beyond that is to soon to tell, but there is nothing to suggest a hard north turn currently.

As of now the wave has a 30% chance for development over the next few days, and this one may never truly develop.

Dorian Event Related Links

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2013&storm=4 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Dorian
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Dorian

Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Dorian (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Dorian (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Dorian

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Dorian
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Dorian -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

91L Event Related Links

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2013&storm=5 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 91L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 91L

Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 91L

Other Model Charts from Clark