7:30 AM Update 29 July 2013
Tropical Storm Flossie still continues to head toward the Hawaiian islands, but has weakened considerably overnight.
The remnants of Dorian (91L) continues to persist with bursts of thunderstorms occurring from time to time. The western side will be dealing with shear this morning that will likely keep this system from developing again. This still should be watched for later, with a 40% chance for development it could be a factor in south Florida or southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend.
Recon is tentatively scheduled to check out the area in the afternoon.
Original Update
The remnants of Dorian have been designated as Invest 91L and the system is looking a little better organized this morning. At 28/15Z, 91L was located about 125 miles north of Antigua moving to the west at 20mph. In the next 24 hours the system will encounter southerly windshear but that shear should be decreasing. Sustained winds are indicated at 30 knots and the SST is 28.5C. The forward motion is expected to decrease to 15mph over the next 24 to 36 hours. The zone of dry air that was located to the west of the system has been shunted to the south and has decreased in coverage. Some of the early-output models suggest regeneration so the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to take a look at the storm later today. Earlier this morning the Invest developed good outflow over the northern half of the system - which is a good indicator that a circulation center has probably redeveloped at a low or mid level. The probability for redevelopment is still low but this system should still be closely monitored.
Invest 91L (Ex-Dorian) Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2013&storm=5 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 91L
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of 91L
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of 91L
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Flossie continues to head toward the Hawaiian Islands. At 2AM HST, Flossie was located about 600 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, moving to the west at 20mph. Sustained winds were at 65mph but expected to decrease due to some windshear. SSTs will slowly increase from 26C to 27C as Flossie approaches the Islands.
From CPHC Honolulu:
"A tropical storm warning is in effect for all waters east of and including the Kaiwi Channel. Far eastern coastal waters of the Big Island will first feel the effects beginning very early Monday morning, then spreading to Maui county by late morning. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Kauai channel, windward and leeward waters of Oahu. The areas around Oahu will start feeling the effects of Flossie late Monday afternoon and evening.
Flossie will bring potential for heavy rain, flooding, thunderstorms and strong winds to the islands. Now is the time to gather last minute water, food and supplies. Monitor NOAA weather radio and local news outlets for the latest official storm information.
Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Flash flood watch from Monday morning through late Tuesday night for all Hawaii islands.
Tropical storm watch for Oahu.
Tropical storm warning for Molokai, Lanai, Kahoolawe, Maui, Big Island.
Tropical storm watch for Kauai channel, Oahu windward waters, Oahu leeward waters.
Tropical storm warning for Kaiwi Channel, Maui county windward waters, Maui county leeward waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo channel, Alenuihaha channel, Big Island windward waters, Big Island leeward waters, Big Island southeast waters."
Hawaii Close-up Satellite Image
Weather Reports From Hawaii
Honolulu NWS Forecast Office
ED
Edited by MikeC (Mon Jul 29 2013 07:49 AM)
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