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CoconutCandy
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
Flossie Near Hurricane - Forms Closed Eyewall / Threat to Hawaiian Islands
      #94598 - Fri Jul 26 2013 05:23 AM

Aloha Friends! Nice to be back on the site again.

And Thanks to Ed for opening a Forecast Lounge Thread for TS Flossie. Please feel free to contribute to that thread as Flossie approaches the Hawaiian Islands.

And EVERYONE is always welcome to post or reply to the 'Other Basins' Forum as well, and I encourage you to chime in. Mahalos!

Now then. On to Flossie ...


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CoconutCandy
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Tropical Storm "Flossie" Still Strengthening [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #94600 - Fri Jul 26 2013 06:14 AM

Tropical Storm Flossie's final bid at further strengthening (for now, more on that later) appears to be well under way at this hour. Just how much strengthening remains to be seen, before she passes over a fairly steep gradient in SST isotherms, and the waters below Flossie drop to sub-26 C levels. Additionally, some increase in shear is expected later in the forecast period, both factors likely contributing to an expected weakening trend out beyond the 24 to 36 hour time frame.

"Flossie" appears to have her sights set on the Hawaiian Islands and should pass very near to, or directly through, the Island Chain by Monday or Tuesday. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings will likely be required, as a (fortunately) weakening Flossie approaches from the ESE. Latest Model Runs remain fairly tightly clustered and the current NHC forecast track lies just on the southern edge of the Guidance Envelope.



The big questions, currently unanswered at this hour, is how close, how strong, and how juicey will Flossie be upon her arrival in the Hawaiian Islands ?? Even weak and dissipating depressions have been know to unleash torrential rains and destructive flash flooding over the Islands in years past.

Latest Forecast from the NHC in Miami (11 pm Thursday, HST or 5 am Friday, EDT) currently forecasts Flossie to be still at tropical storm status, as she arrives at the Big Island's doorstep around midnight, Monday night, Hawaii local time.



Hopefully, a weakening Flossie will bring some much needed rain to Maui and the Big Island, as we've had several relatively dry winters in a row, and drought conditions still exist in many areas of the state.

But just how much WIND Flossie will still be packing, and how well the moisture envelope holds together, will ultimately determine Flossie's effects as she traverses through the Hawaiian Islands.

Next Post: Tropical Storm Flossie's Meteorological and Thermodynamic Considerations


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Benny
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Loc: Pahoa, HI
Re: Tropical Storm "Flossie" Still Strengthening [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #94607 - Fri Jul 26 2013 03:29 PM

I know, focus on the cone, not the line. As a Pahoa area property owner, you can imagine the NHC current line gets my full attention, landfalling somewhere from Hilo Bay to Pohoiki... then running the saddle to Kailua. "They" tell me the storms always snow out on the peaks - guess we will see. I suppose I would choose to be on the downslope side of the storm.

So I assume we will start seeing tropical storm watches tomorrow. Will stay tuned. Pardon me if I try to blow the line out to sea.

I don't suppose the Hurricane Hunters every fly out of Hawaii.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Tropical Storm "Flossie" Still Strengthening [Re: Benny]
      #94610 - Fri Jul 26 2013 05:11 PM

Actually on the rare times when a hurricane threatens Hawaii, the aircraft would fly in from southern California and operate out of Joint Base Hickam/Pearl (at least I think that is what the base is called now) - but not for a weak system like this. With sequestration, all AF Reserve Hurricane missions are expected to be very limited this season - for the Central Pacific, EASTPAC and Atlantic basins.

Flossie should be a minimal TS at best when it gets near the Islands - maybe some good windward rains, but not even close to a Kona storm when it comes to winds.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Tropical Storm "Flossie" Still Strengthening [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94613 - Sat Jul 27 2013 01:09 AM

I received some clarification regarding Hurricane Hunter support. The 53rd Weather Recon Squadron, Keesler AFB, Biloxi, Mississippi, is sending three aircraft to support Flossie missions. They are also sending three aircraft to St Croix, U.S.V.I. to support Dorian missions if needed. With a 20 percent reduction in manpower (at any one time) they can still support two storms, but not three, i.e., if a third storm pops up they may not be able to provide support for it because of funding restrictions associated with sequestration.
ED

(Note that the intent of this post is to provide clarification on Hurricane Hunter support - sequestration is not open for discussion here.)


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CoconutCandy
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Re: Tropical Storm "Flossie" Still Strengthening [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94616 - Sat Jul 27 2013 08:30 AM

Mahalos Ed and Benny, for your question and replies.

In short (I will edit post later) the "Hurricane Hunters" (The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the Air Force Reserves 403rd Wing, based in Keesler AFB, Biloxi, Mississippi, the same Team that fly into Atlantic storms) were in the Hawaiian Islands as recently as 2007, at the request of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (previously from Guam, but now relocated to Pearl Harbor, Hawaii) for Investigation of Hurricane Felecia, another "F" named storm.

Here are some posts that were made on CFHC at that time ...

--> Hurricane Hunters Hawaii Bound - High Flying Orion P3 Already At Work
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=85829&an=0&page=3#85829

... and the Initial (previous) post regarding Hurricane Felecia (for context and overview) is here ...

--> Hurricane FELICIA Powers Up, Eyes Hawaiian Islands
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=85816&an=0&page=3#85816

(Barry, I'll be back to address a few of your comments after making my next post about TS Flossie.)


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CoconutCandy
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Flossie Near Hurricane - Forms Closed Eyewall / Threat to Hawaiian Islands [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #94618 - Sat Jul 27 2013 08:42 AM

Aloha Friends! As promised, now for some Meteorological and Thermodynamic Considerations and Pondering regarding a still strengthening Tropical Storm Flossie, poised to enter into the Central Pacific Area of Responsibility later today.

It's been quite interesting, watching Flossie's developments the past few days as she gathers strength, all the while drawing a bead on the Hawaiian Islands for an eventual 'landfall' in the Aloha State in about 3 days time.


[Graphic courtesy of the NRL Tropical Cyclone Page]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html


... more coming shortly ...

...


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Benny
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Reged: Mon
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Loc: Pahoa, HI
Heading North [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #94638 - Mon Jul 29 2013 12:05 PM

The 5:00 AM HST Advisory is out with Flossie heading north of the previous track - I am guessing without aircraft recon, and until now, without radar, the center fix was a little less than specific at times.



South Shore radar now has the circulation as well.



Or current at: Hawaii Radars

Admitted wishcast: Keep curving north...

Alhoa a hui ho!


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