MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Invest 95L (Yucatan) Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2013&storm=6 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 95L
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of 95L
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of 95L
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
After a bit of activity last week, both systems fizzled out and now there isn't as much to watch in the tropics this week.
There is an area of convection in the Gulf of Mexico, southwest of Florida that will need to be monitored because of the time of year, but there are no models currently developing the system. If this persists through tomorrow, things may change.
Outside of this, not much going on in the Tropics, which is very unusual for this time in August.
Northeast Gulf Links
Southeast Composite Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Mobile, AL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Tallahassee FL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Northwest Florida Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery
SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track
Area Forecast Discussions:
New Orleans -
Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola -
Panhandle/Tallahassee -
Tampa/West Central Florida
|
Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
It is indeed unusual for the week of 19-25 August to not have a named storm. In the past 50 years it has only happened 7 times: 1967, 1968, 1977, 1978, 1982, 1997 and 2002. A very weak cyclonic curvature is noted near Cape Sable - but that's it for the entire basin.
ED
|
Wingman51
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Is picking up the beginning of something or are my eyes just getting older?
|
Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
The does hint at a system off the African west coast in a few days, however, its probably developing the system that was at 10N 5E at 20/18Z. That however is no guarantee since stronger systems have been noted over the African continent in the past couple of weeks and many of them didn't develop. Time to wait and look for model consistency from run to run, but the basin looks uncommonly quiet for the next few days. Any model output beyond that is fodder for the Lounge.
ED
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
I'll give this a 10% chance just for being in the Eastern Caribbean.
Cyclonic curvature noted in the low and mid level clouds. Currently a moderate sized convective complex is in the NE sector of the complex and has what appears to be something close to a CHT- convective hot tower. CHT's are basically turbochargers or power cells in developed tropical cyclones. I've been watching this system for several hours after local sunset and it seems to be holding together, to a degree.
Moderately dry air to the west of the system and dry air to the north of the system.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013-edited~danielw
....IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
20N84W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N76W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS HIGH ENHANCED THE CONVECTION E
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...
CONVECTION OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE...AND FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
NHC is giving this Low a 10% chance at becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours to 5 days. That percentage will probably increase with the 8 PM Tropical Weather Outlook.
First image is centered on the Center of Circulation for the system. Notice the overshooting cloud spike (small grey dot) just west of Tampa,FL. Small CHT?
Water Vapor image. Small yellow dot just west of Tampa. Cloud spike.
Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 22 2013 07:08 PM)
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Visible zoom at the same time of the above two photos.
Tampa radar cloud top heights... 51,000 feet on that spike. Nearly 10 miles high. Easily seen from Orlando, I would imagine.
Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 22 2013 07:25 PM)
|
Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sun
Posts: 99
|
|
It appears 95L in the Bay of Campeche is close to TD status if not already there. It doesn't have much time over water, but it's making the most of it so far.
|
ralphfla
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 26
|
|
Looking at the next week might get interesting way out in the Atlantic. I am hoping the model is wrong or we get a few Fishes which is what i hope they will be.
|