FLHurricane.com: Watching Area East of Melbourne (91L)

5:00 AM EDT Update 30 June 2014
The area east of Florida has lost much of the convection overnight so near term development (Today) seems less likely. If the circulation persists, later tomorrow or Wednesday are better possibilities. The continued southern movement along with shear is making it difficult for the convection to hang on.

Some rainfall from bands of this system will be seen today, particularly extreme coastal Brevard county south to Palm Beach County. Beach conditions may be poor in these areas, and locally heavy rainfall from these bands will probably last through mid-late this week, some of them may reach inland. Although not guaranteed, the center is expected to remain just offshore of Florida, however. This system remains something to watch over the next few days.

Let us know conditions related to this system in your area, in this Storm Forum post.

1:30 PM EDT Update 29 June 2014

The system off the southeast coast (91L - ~230 miles east of St. Augustine) is looking better structurally today, but still lacks circulation. The recon mission scheduled for today was cancelled, but there is another scheduled for tomorrow morning, if needed.

(Image from NWS Melbourne)

Along with the lack of circulation, there is dry air nearby, and general pressures are still relatively high.
So no tropical development today, it seems, but tomorrow and especially late Tuesday, if it develops, may be more likely.

Chances as of this afternoon are 60% for development in the next 48 hours, and 80% in the next 5 days. Even if it does not strengthen much, it will at the very least have impact on a lot of beaches for rip-currents and the like during the July 4th weekend.

Original Update

And area that has been over South Carolina the past few days has persisted and now is over open waters of the Atlantic, and has fairly good conditions around it for development.

It just was designated as invest 91L, so more to come soon.

The National Hurricane Center gives it a 30% chance for development in the next 48 hours, and 50% in the next 5 days, based on satellite appearance this morning, those chances may be a bit low.

The system is generally moving southeast away from land and has windspeeds around 25MPH, it's likely to remain offshore for a while.

Forecasting models have not really picked up on this system yet. But generally those along the east coast,of Florida, coastal Georgia, and the Carolinas will want to watch the progress of this system.

Aircraft recon is tentatively scheduled to fly out there tomorrow afternoon, if needed.