Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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SST trends, and even SST climatology, suggest about a 65% probability of at least a firm El Nino event during the heart of the Atlantic 2015 hurricane season. At this early stage, analog years are difficult to determine - perhaps something similar to the 1987 season (7/3/1). Sometimes a firm El Nino year (1953) can still produce an active Atlantic tropical cyclone season but those anomalies are rare. My current thoughts are to lean toward a season with lower than normal activity with an initial forecast of 8/5/1. With below normal SSTs forecast for the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea for the Spring and early Summer, an early start to the 2015 Atlantic season is not very likely. As the season approaches, feel free to add your own numbers in our annual attempt to quantify the numbers for the upcoming season. Rational for your forecast is not required and you can adjust your numbers as often as you wish until this thread closes on June 1st. At the end of the 2015 season we'll revisit our numbers and see how well we did (or didn't).
Cheers,
ED
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
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Posts: 159
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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I've had this forecast planned out for a couple of years, focusing on the continuation of an overactive season in a year ending with a 5 that's been the trend lately. I'll either really be onto something or the worst projection ever on this site.
38/19/9
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Doombot!
Weather Guru
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Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
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My god! 38/19/9? New year's egg nog a bit heavy or profit? I think we're in a slower and slower period, so 8/2/1 but I've got a ½ year to amend.
I'm mostly curious to see us 20 Greek letters deep in the naming system. Happy 2015!
Quote:
I've had this forecast planned out for a couple of years, focusing on the continuation of an overactive season in a year ending with a 5 that's been the trend lately. I'll either really be onto something or the worst projection ever on this site.
38/19/9
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The primary reason that we do this is to see who did the best job of guesstimating the seasonal activity in the Atlantic basin. Another reason is to see if we, as a group, can show any improvement in our average outlook for the season, i.e. have we learned anything (or not) over time - so with that second goal in mind, to avoid an unfair bias against the other participants, your numbers will not be used when the average of all inputs is finalized. However, your numbers will certainly be used in the individual scoring so your inputs will be evaluated with all of the other inputs when the season comes to an end. Note that nothing meteorologically suggests an all-time record number of storms for 2015 in the Atlantic basin.
ED
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 159
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Well with a team average in mind I'll go ahead and drop the outlandish forecast and keep that one in my private log files for the end of the year and come up with something a little more reasoned.
After thinking on it a little while and looking over the past couple of years, I think the overall number of storms will stay low but the intensity of the storms may rise a little bit, with the exception of storms that briefly form, either close to land or in a briefly favorable environment before falling apart. Number of Major Hurricanes I'm stuck at between two and three but I'll go ahead and round up to three.
7/5/3.
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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6-2-1
Edited by B.C.Francis (Mon Jan 26 2015 03:55 PM)
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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There have been several years in a row marked by systems that never really got their act together, with only a few exceptions. I'm going to go all 1995 on this year though, 19/11/5
The secondary calll for this year for "bonus points"" is if Florida sees a true landfalling hurricane this year. If not we get an even 10 years without one. (on 10/24) We may have an active year, but at this point I'll lean toward hitting the 10 year record. (which probably means watch out Florida)
Both predictions are 100% unscientific.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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It is difficult to find a realistic analog year for the 2015 season. Right now, 1957 is the only season that remotely matches what 2015 could be like. Given the unique SST pattern (both current and forecast), the seasonal forecasts from the various agencies are probably going to have quite a range from very quiet to very busy. Its quite possible that Florida will indeed hit the 10 year record of no landfalling hurricanes.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Since 1950 there have only been three years that had an El Nino event last for the entire year: 1953, 1969 and 1987. With an El Nino event about to verify (five straight months) there is a good possibility that 2015 could become the fourth year that this has happened since 1950. 1957 is no longer a viable analog year, but two of the active El Nino years, 1953 and 1969, are looking like possible analog years for this upcoming season. The other two are 1977 and 1991. With the exception of 1953 and 1969, no other year with a moderate El Nino has produced above normal tropical cyclone activity, however, 1958 did have an average number of storms (10/7/5), so about 25% of the time an El Nino season can still produce an active season in the Atlantic basin. The latest SST forecasts (issued 3/2/15) suggest that above normal SSTs will exist in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea for the entire 2015 Atlantic tropical cyclone season - so an early season storm is certainly possible this year - and that would also be true for a late season storm or two.
Current Analog Years
1977 6//5/1
1969 18/12/5
1991 8/4/2
1953 13/6/4
Average of the Analog Years is 11/7/3.
With a nudge from the 'potential' for a slightly busier season, I'll bump up my forecast to 9/6/2.
Remember, if you have already posted your forecast you can change it, if you wish, right up until the thread closes on June 1st.
Cheers,
ED
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M.A.
Weather Guru
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Posts: 108
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
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11/6/2
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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I will average the two (CSU/TSR) and post 9/4/2
I seem to recall an increase in precipitation along California coast In previous strong El-Nino years. For their sake lets hope so anyway...
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doug
Edited by doug (Thu Apr 09 2015 03:52 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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1977 is starting to look like a strong analog year - so I'm going to drop my numbers back to my original forecast of 8/5/1.
ED
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