Archives 2010s >> 2015 Forecast Lounge

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2135
Loc: Austin, Tx
Kate Lounge
      #96115 - Fri Nov 06 2015 02:59 PM

As of Friday Nov 6, 2015 a large area of disturbed weather associated with the interaction of an upper-level trough and a tropical wave was tracking west to west-northwest into the Lesser Antilles and far eastern Caribbean. While upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for development, they are expected to become less hostile over the coming weekend, and could even turn favorable into early next week. Interests in the eastern Caribbean, Lesser Antilles to the Bahamas may want to monitor this feature for the prospect of future development. Regardless of development, scattered blustery tropical downpours and some thunderstorms will likely occur along its path.

Invest 94L was declared a tropical depression at 10PM Sunday Nov 8, becoming the twelfth officiated tropical cyclone of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season . TWELVE is forecast to intensify and become Kate on Monday the 9th.

TWELVE has intensified and is now Tropical Storm Kate.

Kate became the latest forming in-season hurricane for so far northwest in the Atlantic basin in the reliable record, as well as the latest hurricane to form in the entire Atlantic basin since 2005.

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Nov 16 2015 05:23 PM)

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Weather Analyst

Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Lesser Antilles Disturbance [Re: cieldumort]
      #96116 - Fri Nov 06 2015 03:06 PM

the two better models GFS and ECMWF have an interest in this feature...not so much in the GOM feature...


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Storm Tracker

Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Lesser Antilles Disturbance [Re: doug]
      #96117 - Sat Nov 07 2015 09:30 AM

NHC 5 day at 50%. Unseasonably warm in Florida for November Temps in the upper 80's for the last couple weeks No let up in sight.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: TS Kate Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #96120 - Sun Nov 08 2015 10:47 AM

Probability for additional development now up to 70 percent. Heading for Bahamas with good chance for TD status in a day or two. Early expectation is for cold front to keep system away from Florida but timing could make it a close call. The next name on the list is Kate.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Nov 09 2015 09:08 AM)

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