danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Hurricane Michael has been reorganizing overnight. It appears that the storm has finally closed off the eyewall... bad sign!
The horse tail like cirrus clouds on the periphery are also indicative of a decrease in wind shear... bad sign!
I haven't checked the RECON data yet, but it shouldn't be long before Michael returns to strengthening.
Michael has also jumped a bit toward the west. Only 25 miles, but that can add up.
I don't know if the jump was an Eye reorganization or a bit of a turn to the NW.
Watch this Storm closely today and tonight.
Edited by danielw (Tue Oct 09 2018 06:58 AM)
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
Michael continuing to intensify with two planes penetrating the eye this morning and a third sampling the environment helping to pin things down into the final stretch before landfall.
Apparent jumpiness is a result of Michael's asymmetric eye and inner mesovortices, but the smoothed out motion of the mean center is still on target.
Most recent fix finding 967 MB and 120 MPH flight-level winds Quote:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 13:52Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2018
Storm Name: Michael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 13:32:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.78N 86.20W
B. Center Fix Location: 278 statute miles (447 km) to the W (273°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,805m (9,203ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 967mb (28.56 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 200° at 13kts (From the SSW at 15mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 91kts (104.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NE (35°) of center fix at 13:27:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 113° at 104kts (From the ESE at 119.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (38°) of center fix at 13:26:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 63kts (72.5mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SW (227°) of center fix at 13:37:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 319° at 77kts (From the NW at 88.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SW (227°) of center fix at 13:36:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,032m (9,948ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,039m (9,970ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 104kts (~ 119.7mph) which was observed 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (38°) from the flight level center at 13:26:30Z
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
The Best track system tagged Michael as a cat 3 (18z) so expect an upgrade to cat 3 at 5pm.
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Eye has closed off, both on Microwave and recon reports. Only thing really could stop strengthening is the dry air to the west and shear as it approaches land (but will be too late to do much)
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
While not what is yet calling for, it's my personal estimation that Michael will become a Cat 4 and maybe a Cat 5. Normally I would put this into the lounge, but there is such solid data to back it up now, it is reasonable to include here. Just within the past hour the eye really closed off and became encircled with -80C cloud tops, a phenomenal and very unnerving development. The hurricane now almost resembles T 7.0 monsters we have seen rarely before. In fact, ADT updated with a correct eye location, and using a p/eye scene, Raw T jumped right to 6.9
This is a hurricane that has been overachieving all along, and continues to do so tonight. In addition, it held its own throughout the day while traveling over a very large cool eddy in the southern Gulf that it is now moving away from. The SSTs under Michael have gone from 24C to now a 26 to 29 range, and are set to stay around there right through landfall, save just along the coast.
Another thing, many model runs early on were suggesting that min pressure would go quite low, but that the hurricane would respond less in terms of sustained wind than usual. A recent example of that phenomenon was Florence. However, this has not turned out to be the case with Michael, and many of these very same models, having caught up to this, bring Michael unquestionably into Cat 4 prior to landfall, and suggest higher is within the realm of real possibility.
If you are in the evac zones of Michael, this is no storm to play chicken in.
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Last recon pass found 948.5mb pressure and 130knot flight level winds. Approaching, if not already, a category 4 hurricane.
|
Joeyfl
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
|
|
Incredible lightning within the eye. Indication of strengthening for sure. You can only hope theres some weakening before landfall but its not looking good.
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
946mb on the last pass. Yeah lightning and more hot towers on satellite.
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
And just after I wrote that, 943.7mb.
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
They settled on 947, but the official forecast now calls for a landfalling category 4 hurricane.
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
Most recent Vort - Closed, circular eye. SFMR winds 144 MPH. Pressure 935 still dropping. Quote:
Observation Number: 23
A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 10:50:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28.81N 86.34W
B. Center Fix Location: 103 statute miles (165 km) to the SSW (203°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,540m (8,333ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 936mb (27.64 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 210° at 24kts (From the SSW at 28mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 104kts (119.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the WSW (242°) of center fix at 10:40:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 327° at 104kts (From the NNW at 119.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the WSW (241°) of center fix at 10:39:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 125kts (143.8mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the NNE (31°) of center fix at 10:53:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 135° at 128kts (From the SE at 147.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (36°) of center fix at 10:54:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,042m (9,980ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 130kts (~ 149.6mph) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the ESE (115°) from the flight level center at 9:00:00Z
--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Various Michael related recordings of webcam/radar going at http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php?year=all&tag=Michael+%282018%29
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Recon recently found a 936 mb pressure.
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
933 at 8am with 145mph winds.
|
Kraig
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 68
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
|
|
145MPH and 933MB @ 8am update!
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 86.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
926.8mb on last recon pass...
Andrew made landfall at 922.
|
Kraig
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 68
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
|
|
150MPH and 923MB @ 1130AM ET
SUMMARY OF 1030 AM CDT...1530 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 85.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES
|
Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
|
|
Trying to think of the last time there was a Major hurricane intensifying up to landfall. Not sure how it impacts winds mixing down to the surface.
--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
918.3mb on last pass
|
kspkap
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 35
|
|
I think it was Andrew. Later revised to a Cat 5 right before landfall.
“Revised data in 2002 uncovered that at its height Andrew was packing 165-mile-per-hour winds, which kicked it up to a Category 5 instead of a Category 4.”
“In the United States, this century, only the Labor Day (Keys') Storm in 1935 [103K GIF] (892 mb) and Hurricane Camille in 1969 [122K GIF] (909 mb) had lower landfall central pressures than Andrew (Hebert et al. 1992).”
--------------------
Donna-1960, Charley-2004, Frances-2004, Jeanne-2004, Issac-2012, Zeta-2020
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
[Re: 
Edit
Reply
Quote
