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MikeCAdministrator
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92L Nearing the Gulf
      #99909 - Sun Jul 07 2019 08:07 PM

b]10:00 AM EDT 10 July 2019 Update

The NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two at 10 am CDT. (11am EDT) Watches Likely for Louisiana which is already receiving flooding rainfall this morning (New Orleans got 6-10 inches this
morning)
.

8:30 AM EDT 10 July 2019 Update

92L is now getting organized in the Gulf of Mexico as can be seen on satellite imagery. There still is a 90% chance for development over the next 48 hours. It could form as early as tonight (Recon scheduled for this afternoon would likely make that determination), but more likely sometime tomorrow.

It is very likely that Hurricane, Tropical Storm, and Storm Surges Watches/Warnings will be issued later today.

The models range from Louisiana to Northeast Texas, and vary in strength. Typically points at and to the right of the center of the storm see the worst of the weather and surge. In any case large amounts of flooding rainfall are expected, and this system still could strengthen into a hurricane. Upper level conditions around 92L are good for development, so it looks like things will start popping later today.


8:30 AM EDT 9 July 2019 Update
The 92L system, now over the Florida Panhandle and likely to move over water later today, still has an 80% chance for development over the next 5 days and 50% development over the next 48 hours.

Today will bring rain to some areas along the Florida coast, but any real organization (if any) is not likely until Thursday.

The National Hurricane Center may begin Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories as early as this evening depending on how the storm progresses. Regardless of how much the storm forms, there will be heavy rain along the northern and northeastern Gulf coasts.

There still remains potential for a strong tropical storm or hurricane to develop, so those in Louisiana in particular along with just east and west of there should continue to watch this system closely. Especially as Friday and Saturday arrive. It is also important to note there is still a chance this does not form at all.

9:30 AM EDT 8 July 2019 Update
The Georgia system is now being tracked as invest 92L. Model/forecast/speculation can be found in the Forecast Lounge.

5AM EDT 8 July 2019 Update
The frontal boundary disturbance currently over western Georgia now has an 80% chance to develop this week. Based on the current models its not likely to emerge into the Gulf until tomorrow night, but once there is enough of favorable environment for something tropical to form in the Gulf Thursday or Friday, and most likely drift westward during this time.

The system is most likely just a rain maker, but if it manages to stay in the gulf long enough it could form into a strong tropical storm or hurricane. Those in the Gulf, particularly from NE Texas and Louisiana should be watching this one closely for this coming weekend.

Those further east and west should also continue to monitor It's likely not to have any official tropical advisories issued until the system is almost or has formed. So watch the hurricane center's outlooks closely.

Original Update
An interesting combination of a frontal system and a mid-level disturbance,currently over extreme northwestern Georgia along with very warm Gulf waters makes for an interesting mid to late week when the system moves out over the Gulf and upper level conditions turn favorable for development.

There it may have favorable enough conditions to form, in fact most of the models suggest it. Therefore the NHC has increased development chances to 60% over the next 5 days. Depending on how far south and west the system drifts, the more inclined it can form. Therefore those along the northern Gulf coast, from Western Louisiana/NE Texas Coast all the way to the Florida Panhandle should watch this one closely over the next few days. And those further east and west. will want to follow.

This area is not currently tagged as an invest, and it is currently over land. However, the spin is evident on radar currently at the point of convergence. If this moves south over water it won't take much for it to start forming. One thing to watch in the short term is how far south vs east this system gets. Even if it does develop, it isn't likely to gain too much strength and primarily be a rain maker. However the heat content and proximity to land still requires attention in case it does linger over water longer than anticipated.


Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 Event Related Links


float2latest.gif stormplotthumb_2.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2019&storm=2 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Two
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Two


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Two (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Two (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Two

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Two
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Two -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Mobile, AL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

New Orleans, LA Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA - Houston/Galveston, TX

Texas Gulf Coast Links [http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/radar.html Mark Nissenbaum's radar page} East to West:

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Corpus Christi, TX Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Brownsville, TX Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Houston/Galveston, TX - Corpus Christi, TX - Browsnville/South Padre Island, TX

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Frontal Boundary and the Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #99916 - Mon Jul 08 2019 04:08 PM

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Nearing the Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #99920 - Tue Jul 09 2019 09:19 AM

I've got a long term Northeast Gulf Radar composite recording here http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?442 to watch what happens as the system moves into the Gulf.

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Re: 92L Nearing the Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #99924 - Tue Jul 09 2019 01:34 PM

As development with 92L is looking increasingly likely, recon has now been tasked to fly several missions.
With flights so close, an abundance of good recon data should be getting fed into the models every day starting later tomorrow.



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Nearing the Gulf [Re: cieldumort]
      #99927 - Wed Jul 10 2019 09:58 AM

Flooding concerns are large for Lousiana, this camera shows flooding already in New Orleans.

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/louisiana/neworleans/bourbonstreet/?cam=bourbonstreet


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Nearing the Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #99928 - Wed Jul 10 2019 10:36 AM

The NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two at 10 am CDT. (11am EDT) Watches Likely for Louisiana which is already receiving flooding rainfall this morning (New Orleans got 6-10 inches this
morning)
.


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