The 12Z models seem to show a slight westward shift with landfall between Naples and Apalachicola. Several skirt the coast before reaching the Big Bend area with the GFS showing a stall or small loop before landfall near St. Marks. The 5PM advisory nudges the track slightly westward with a landfall near Sarasota. Of course, this will change east or west with each advisory until it gets to within 72 hours of landfall.
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Generated May 18, 2024, 6:58:11 AM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center