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Not what I expected this AM in terms of organization - Ian’s a mess. Reading the NHC discussion the lack of a true center is causing issues with determining strength and direction. Long term model guidance seems plagued by “when” leading to confusion over where. Slower motion favorites a N track while faster movement would allow the turn E into Tampa to occur. All models point to a ramp up into a major ‘cane but you wouldn’t know that by the current satellite imagery.

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I've had the same thoughts watching NINE and TS Ian to this point. However, at noon satellite imagery illustrates possible stacking of circulation and influx of banding deep convection NE of the center, leading me to believe that Ian's unimpressive organization so far is about to dramatically change this afternoon through the evening. Next 48-60 hours we could witness an exponential (Camille-like?) ramp-up in intensity to 140 mph as NHC forecast and intensity models suggest.

Even though the cone shifted west away from Tampa Bay region today, I hope newcomers to the Bay area or those that did not have grandparents that lived there, are preparing for flooding rainfall and a near historic storm surge potentially approaching (OR EXCEEDING) 10 feet.

Even though it is a beautiful late September weekend and it may be hard to grasp how dramaticlly conditions may go downhill early Wednesday as Ian nears, PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND ALL UPCOMING WARNINGS when Ian's organization dramatically improves, allowing modeling to narrow down ultimate track/intensity and Florida west coast landfall.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

Edited by IsoFlame (Sun Sep 25 2022 01:04 PM)

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