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He's talking about it over Cuba tonight, not when it hits Florida in two or so days.

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Incorrect - I said later on this week. Specifically referring to landfall in the big bend.

A storm needs more then just warm water, case in point it struggled for the last 3 days due to wind shear. Similar shear is forecast when or if Ian makes it far enough north. The NHC shows at that in 72 hours (2pm Thursday) it’s located at Clearwater Beach with 85 MPH winds.

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The storm is getting everything it needs and, like all these "bizarre storms," has the potential to surprise people more than just looking at flat data that we consider for storms. It just did a rapid increase of intensity in less than three hours of 15MPH, which was not forecasted by the NHC. (an H2 before hitting Cuba). It wasn't supposed to be a hurricane before Cuba in a lot of forecasts two days ago, and now we have an intensifying H2 that doesn't even have a visual eyewall.

The point is that I'm aware of and can see the wind sheer ripping bands off the storm. I can also see that it's organizing itself quite rapidly despite that wind sheer. I suppose I messed up in my assumption of him meaning the second high that's coming later that hopefully saves Florida but then again, most people on here (sorry, don't deny it I've been watching it since being here for Katrina and am surprised my tongue hasn't totally been bit off) that most people don't give a crap about a storm until it starts to threaten the continental United States. Puerto Rico hadn't even gotten close to being fixed from Maria and Irma before Fiona this year. Their dead were measured in the thousands when they get hit in 2017, a number that would make people drop dead from the shock alone if it happened on the mainland. After they buried the dead that fell dead in shock, they'd send so much physical and financial help that they'd have people fighting over just where to put it all.

This is why I assumed he meant the sheer coming up to knock the storm down over Florida versus right now. I apologize for assuming that he wasn't commenting about something that only had the USA in its sights. Moist people (including all news shows) are already talking about Florida because Cuba doesn't really exist to them either

In any case, I'll clarify my point. The storm doesn't seem to care about the current wind sheer because it's now an H2. It looks to be going over the Western tip of Cuba so it's not going to lose much if any strength when it does it before hopping into the Gulf with more favorable weather.

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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.

Edited by Psyber (Mon Sep 26 2022 07:06 PM)

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