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This thing will come ashore in the Captiva/Cape Coral area. It didn’t listen to the models at all the past week.

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Sadly, some models had it as high as 975mb which, given the construction of the storm, was just wrong. I figured 930, which was a bit low but not that low. I still don't know why they thought Tampa Bay was going to take so much storm. It's like the models didn't see the curve ball. Perhaps too much hope for the incoming jet stream? It came too late. God, Bradenton must be getting an absolute deluge of water. Like Hurricane Harvey over Texas kind of rain and storm surge.

Removed part so some people are.

As for the models, many of them had Ian getting hit with a huge drying piece of the jetstream while still out to sea because many of them were aiming the storm higher towards Tampa Bay...giving the jetstream time to beat on the storm. So no, other than general direction, A BUNCH of models didn't have Ian sitting half over Bradenton, Florida/half over the ocean, churning storm surge and twenty for hours or more of rain on basically the same spots.

Win. lose or draw, with global warming 100% being a thing, we're in this together.

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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.

Edited by Psyber (Wed Sep 28 2022 10:53 PM)

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