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My thinking was that whatever that "front" (quotes because I don't know what that is or is called, but it looks like a winter cold front to me) was, Ian was going to skirt along its edge. What I dodn't get is why the models at that time still had the storm moving across Tampa and up the north.

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Excellent observation... and it was a front: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archives/noaa/2022/noaad1_2022092712.gif

5:10 into this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psxR5JRjCPA Levi shows it too. And at the 6:00 mark you can see the moisture cut off (dry air behind NW / wet ahead SE) marking the front clearly. Problem is the models predicted this feature would be 100-150 miles further N as shown in the video. That distance gap is pretty much the miles between Ft Myers and Tampa.

A very similar setup is what pushed Wilma very quickly NE across the state, coming ashore at Cape Romano and exiting near Jupiter. It went from a Cat 2 storm outside to a cold (by FL standards) day within a matter of hours. The high was 87, then the low was 65. I was doing clean up wearing a hoodie and jeans and so that dramatic change in weather is stuck in my head forever. One day hot, summer tropical storm... boom next day blue bird sunshine, crisp and cool out.

Thanks for the radar loops.

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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22

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