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At this time of year the Atlantic waters are cooler than the Gulf waters.

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Yes this storm 2 months ago would be 10X more worrisome.

Based on observations Nicole is trending south of forecast however this "S" approach is going to make figuring out landfall very tricky. Normally tropical systems will curve and you wait for that turn. With this projected path there are two turns, if either of these turns are early or late the center's exact location will be very different - so "watching the line" truly doesn't apply here - anywhere between Miami and Daytona doesn't matter as the weather will be similar however it will be stronger on the N side just due to onshore flow.

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