Archives 2020s >> 2022 Forecast Lounge

JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 489
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
      Thu Nov 10 2022 02:01 PM

Quote:

The trajectory and rainfall estimates have been accurate, but windspeed should not have been this overestimated.
Is it too late in the season for the hurricane hunters to be flying?




The hunters were flying in the storm like normal: http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon....;product=vortex - Only once did they find surface winds above 74 and even that was an estimate. Make sense over water where you do not have instrumentation but once over land they knew it wasn't blowing that hard. Here is the Vero Beach Airport data: https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KVRB.html the highest gust I see was 58 and this location was pretty much dead center right after landfall. You can see when the eye passed over as the wind dropped to just 5 after blowing from N then switching to the S. Granted there were likely higher gust as they are only showing hourly data.

The wind speed problem has been going on for DECADES, I've complained about here before: https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat...true#Post72872.

I am 90% sure Ian was rated a good +30 MPH above what was really going on, I look forward to the offseason reports because those contain verified ground data. I have no idea why the NHC continues to give what are clearly flight level winds. I get it - the storm is blowing and they measure those winds with an aircraft, but people live at sea level so the information should reflect that reality. Not only is the speed wrong but the wind field itself was way overstated. Ignoring the 7PM map mistake (which was hilarious) they still show Tampa getting TS winds right now. But local conditions (NOAA data from the airport) currently shows winds 24 gusting to 37... which, again by definition, is not at TS levels. I just don't understand the disconnect.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Nicole Forecast Lounge CFHCAdministrator Thu Nov 10 2022 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Nov 07 2022 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Nov 07 2022 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Mon Nov 07 2022 11:06 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Mon Nov 07 2022 11:24 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Mon Nov 07 2022 12:54 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Mon Nov 07 2022 01:45 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Mon Nov 07 2022 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge Reef Road Rick   Mon Nov 07 2022 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Nov 07 2022 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Mon Nov 07 2022 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Mon Nov 07 2022 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Tue Nov 08 2022 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Nov 08 2022 06:49 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Tue Nov 08 2022 09:18 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Tue Nov 08 2022 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Tue Nov 08 2022 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge GeorgeN   Tue Nov 08 2022 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Tue Nov 08 2022 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Tue Nov 08 2022 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Wed Nov 09 2022 05:36 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Wed Nov 09 2022 06:20 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Wed Nov 09 2022 08:16 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Wed Nov 09 2022 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge IsoFlame   Wed Nov 09 2022 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Wed Nov 09 2022 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge Kraig   Wed Nov 09 2022 06:15 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Wed Nov 09 2022 07:30 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge GeorgeN   Wed Nov 09 2022 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Wed Nov 09 2022 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Wed Nov 09 2022 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge Rhino7170   Wed Nov 09 2022 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Thu Nov 10 2022 01:52 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Thu Nov 10 2022 08:45 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge GeorgeN   Thu Nov 10 2022 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Thu Nov 10 2022 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Thu Nov 10 2022 03:16 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge GeorgeN   Thu Nov 10 2022 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Thu Nov 10 2022 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Thu Nov 10 2022 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Fri Nov 11 2022 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Thu Nov 10 2022 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Nov 08 2022 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Sun Nov 06 2022 07:31 AM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles kapSt.Cloud   Sun Nov 06 2022 11:50 AM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles OrlandoDan   Mon Nov 07 2022 10:01 AM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles kapSt.Cloud   Mon Nov 07 2022 10:47 PM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Fri Nov 04 2022 12:34 AM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Fri Nov 04 2022 02:12 PM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Fri Nov 04 2022 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Sat Nov 05 2022 12:14 AM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles MichaelA   Sat Nov 05 2022 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles TanukiMario   Sun Nov 06 2022 07:27 AM

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