General Discussion >> 2023 Storm Forum


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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 2023 Season Number guesses
      Wed May 31 2023 09:51 PM

Greetings and good luck with the contest!

This year the downstream impacts of a forecast El Niño, if verified, may compete with a tendency for otherwise neutral to possibly very favorable conditions in the Atlantic and make a much larger than normal range of uncertainty in seasonal forecasts. In fact, a strong El Niño could easily bust all forecasts that are presently average to above average, while ENSO nuetral conditions (neither El Niño or La Niña present), could allow for a banger of a season.

There's even a real possibility of an El Niño that does not result in the usual downstream windshear, and the UKMET office, which uses a robust "ensemble prediction system based on a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM)" is calling for just that, with 14-26 Storms, of which 8-14 become Hurricanes, of which 3-7 become Major Hurricanes, with an ACE of 222 despite El Niño! (LINK)

My once again slightly updated method I've toyed with over the years comes in at
TC/STCs: 15 (Likely range of 10-20)
Storms (AKA Names): 13 (Likely range of 8-18)
Hurricanes: 6 (Likely range of 4-8)
Majors: 3 (Likely range of 2-4)

This forecast for total number of "Storms" includes the already unnamed, pre-season Subtropical Storm that NHC found during re-assessment and made public on May 11: NHC Determines That a Subtropical Storm Formed in the Atlantic Basin in Mid-January 2023

Despite my best guess of an "about average" number of of total storms, hurricanes and majors, I see an average to above-average risk of US landfalls. And as always, "it only takes one."

2023 Forecast: 13 Storms, 6 Hurricanes, 3 Majors

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* 2023 Season Number guesses MikeCAdministrator Wed May 31 2023 09:51 PM
. * * Re: 2023 Season Number guesses cieldumortModerator   Wed May 31 2023 09:51 PM
. * * Re: 2023 Season Number guesses Lamar-Plant City   Thu Jun 01 2023 02:23 PM
. * * Re: 2023 Season Number guesses IsoFlame   Fri May 26 2023 09:53 AM
. * * Re: 2023 Season Number guesses Kraig   Sat May 27 2023 10:09 AM
. * * Re: 2023 Season Number guesses EMS   Tue May 30 2023 09:57 PM
. * * Re: 2023 Season Number guesses MichaelA   Sat May 13 2023 08:03 AM
. * * Re: 2023 Season Number guesses B.C.Francis   Tue May 02 2023 09:14 AM

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