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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
shift
      Tue Jul 06 2004 05:49 PM

evening mjo's arrival becomes very apparent and the system goes offline temporarily.. bummer, cause i had lots of things to say last night that have been brought up today. and covered, so i'll just rehash and give my interpretation.
the wave out in front that looked like a carib/gulf development threat over the weekend has very little signature and enough easterly momentum that it won't have an opportunity to do anything. gfs is tracking two waves it considers development worthy--it maintains 95L until the weekend then develops a weak surface system early next week for the islands.. as it runs into shear ahead of an upper low max backing along the tutt axis. it then promptly loses the system, not via shear, but by the dulling of resolution past 7 days (the remnant moisture plods onward to florida by the end of next week). a couple days behind it a second system, which it treats a bit more favorable, trods along on a more southerly track, checked by easterly shear on the se flank of the upper ridge max in tandem with the upper low ahead. makes some sense, but these are just ballpark until a better fix on either system is attained.
right now i'd give either of these features a moderate development chance. both will probably have to get east of 40w to do anything, and will be contending with variable shear profiles and whatever SAL has in the mix. 95L will probably pulse down for a day or two, then reinvigorate as it gets near 40w. the trailer i'm less sure about (its trajectory will have to be similar to 95L or it will lose its definition/potential). i wouldn't look for a named system down there prior to july 10-11, and a lot can happen between now and then to preclude any of that. 30-40% on either.. net 50% that something happens at all.
more immediately there is that old piece of front south of bermuda. sc and alex k have identified this thing and pretty much explained it. fish spinner fodder, but presently it has the best chance to go soonest. it will probably meander for a couple days, then jerk NE along with a shortwave max.. but until then there appears to be a mid-level low and surface trough there, and it is looking better all the time. i like it, 50% right now. i'm wondering why the nhc hasn't mentioned it (as usual with stuff in fish-spinner land).
anyway, mjo has the switch on. james88 i've heard mjo lasts 30-40 days, but watching the motion anomaly maps (haven't had that page work in a while) a couple years back and the longitude/time diagrams you can see now.. it doesn't really move in linear pulses, but propagates eastward with a sort of discontinous, skippy pace. in my experience it's usually been 2-3 weeks that the basin will be alight, with an odd week on either side. sometimes a little mini-pulse will come by. there's really no telling.. without the time-series anomaly maps i don't have a real clue. anyway james, i guess you must know rich byett (you two are in gloucester and the only folks in europe i ever see post). enjoy what summer you guys have up there. actually, you ought to try something we can't do at my latitude.. think you can photograph some noctilucent clouds?
HF 2150z06july

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Bring on the Weather! John C Tue Jul 06 2004 05:49 PM
. * * Patience Please Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Jul 06 2004 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Patience Please James88   Wed Jul 07 2004 03:39 AM
. * * Re: Patience Please Lois   Wed Jul 07 2004 10:27 AM
. * * Re: Patience Please Anonymous   Wed Jul 07 2004 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Patience Please Tropics Guy   Wed Jul 07 2004 12:36 PM
. * * ps about patience and the mjo bobbi   Wed Jul 07 2004 12:53 PM
. * * Re: ps about patience and the mjo James88   Wed Jul 07 2004 01:19 PM
. * * thanks re: mjo bobbi   Wed Jul 07 2004 02:47 PM
. * * African wave potential? Cycloneye   Wed Jul 07 2004 01:53 PM
. * * Re: African wave potential? Cycloneye   Wed Jul 07 2004 06:35 PM
. * * Re: African wave potential? LI Phil   Wed Jul 07 2004 07:28 PM
. * * Re: African wave potential? Steve Hirschberg   Wed Jul 07 2004 08:44 PM
. * * Re: African wave potential? HanKFranK   Wed Jul 07 2004 09:57 PM
. * * Re: African wave potential? h2ocean   Wed Jul 07 2004 10:44 PM
. * * Topic is "bring on the weather" not models and waves LoisCane   Thu Jul 08 2004 12:03 AM
. * * please check out these statistics, thank u LoisCane   Thu Jul 08 2004 12:19 AM
. * * Re: please check out these statistics, thank u Steve-unjacked   Thu Jul 08 2004 01:00 AM
. * * Re: please check out these statistics, thank u Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Jul 08 2004 07:03 AM
. * * On the sats LoisCane   Thu Jul 08 2004 07:29 AM
. * * Re: On the sats James88   Thu Jul 08 2004 07:34 AM
. * * Re: On the sats JustMe   Thu Jul 08 2004 07:34 AM
. * * Re: On the sats javlin   Thu Jul 08 2004 11:42 AM
. * * Re: On the sats James88   Thu Jul 08 2004 11:49 AM
. * * Re: On the sats James88   Thu Jul 08 2004 07:39 AM
. * * Re: On the sats Anonymous   Thu Jul 08 2004 07:58 AM
. * * Re: On the sats Steve hirsch.   Thu Jul 08 2004 08:00 AM
. * * Re: On the sats James88   Thu Jul 08 2004 08:01 AM
. * * 96L invest for system near Bermuda Cycloneye   Thu Jul 08 2004 08:05 AM
. * * Re: 96L invest for system near Bermuda LI Phil   Thu Jul 08 2004 11:30 AM
. * * i know what you mean phil ...but bobbi   Thu Jul 08 2004 02:56 PM
. * * Re: 96L invest for system near Bermuda Steve hirsch.   Thu Jul 08 2004 11:55 AM
. * * Re: 96L invest for system near Bermuda LI Phil   Thu Jul 08 2004 12:05 PM
. * * Re: 96L invest for system near Bermuda Steve hirsch.   Thu Jul 08 2004 12:31 PM
. * * Re: 96L invest for system near Bermuda James88   Thu Jul 08 2004 12:13 PM
. * * Re: 96L invest for system near Bermuda Jamiewx   Thu Jul 08 2004 11:24 AM
. * * Re: On the sats James88   Thu Jul 08 2004 08:00 AM
. * * Patterns in late rainy season starts ..wondering LoisCane   Wed Jul 07 2004 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Patterns in late rainy season starts ..wondering Tropics Guy   Wed Jul 07 2004 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Patterns in late rainy season starts ..wondering LI Phil   Wed Jul 07 2004 10:06 PM
. * * Re: African wave potential? LoisCane   Wed Jul 07 2004 07:17 PM
. * * Re: Patience Please James88   Wed Jul 07 2004 12:15 PM
. * * One more thing Alex K   Tue Jul 06 2004 02:08 PM
. * * Good catch! summercyclone   Tue Jul 06 2004 03:00 PM
. * * Re: One more thing LI Phil   Tue Jul 06 2004 02:58 PM
. * * Re: One more thing Old Sailor   Tue Jul 06 2004 03:08 PM
. * * Re: One more thing James88   Tue Jul 06 2004 04:06 PM
. * * getting active......but Alex K   Tue Jul 06 2004 09:46 PM
. * * Re: getting active......but JustMe   Tue Jul 06 2004 10:52 PM
. * * shift HanKFranK   Tue Jul 06 2004 05:49 PM
. * * Re: shift HanKFranK   Tue Jul 06 2004 05:55 PM
. * * Re: shift summercyclone   Wed Jul 07 2004 09:42 AM
. * * Re: shift LI Phil   Tue Jul 06 2004 07:08 PM
. * * Atlantic is heating up Cycloneye   Tue Jul 06 2004 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Atlantic is heating up LI Phil   Tue Jul 06 2004 08:18 PM
. * * Things really heating up Jamiewx   Tue Jul 06 2004 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Things really heating up Rich B   Tue Jul 06 2004 05:48 PM
. * * I agree Alex K   Wed Jul 07 2004 02:18 PM
. * * Re: I agree Jamiewx   Wed Jul 07 2004 04:05 PM
. * * Re: I agree James88   Wed Jul 07 2004 04:11 PM
. * * New East Atlantic Wave Rich B   Wed Jul 07 2004 03:54 PM
. * * the 2 prospects Alex K   Tue Jul 06 2004 02:02 PM
. * * searching for Alex Alex K   Sun Jul 04 2004 11:12 PM
. * * Re: searching for Alex h2ocean   Sun Jul 04 2004 11:29 PM
. * * Re: searching for Alex James88   Mon Jul 05 2004 09:20 AM
. * * hi..boo BObbi   Mon Jul 05 2004 09:27 AM
. * * Re: hi..boo James88   Mon Jul 05 2004 10:37 AM
. * * Interesting Wave Kevin   Mon Jul 05 2004 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Interesting Wave James88   Mon Jul 05 2004 11:15 AM
. * * Glad ED is okay Wild Cat   Tue Jul 06 2004 12:50 PM
. * * 95L for eaat atlantic wave Cycloneye   Mon Jul 05 2004 01:09 PM
. * * 95L for eastern atlantic wave Jamiewx   Mon Jul 05 2004 01:20 PM
. * * Re: 95L for eaat atlantic wave James88   Mon Jul 05 2004 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Wave joepub1   Mon Jul 05 2004 11:54 AM
. * * looking at conditions... Alex K   Mon Jul 05 2004 01:32 PM
. * * Re: looking at conditions... Jamiewx   Mon Jul 05 2004 01:36 PM
. * * Re: looking at conditions... James88   Mon Jul 05 2004 01:44 PM
. * * Re: looking at conditions... Steve Hirschberg   Mon Jul 05 2004 02:03 PM
. * * More satellite imagery Jamiewx   Mon Jul 05 2004 02:16 PM
. * * Re: More satellite imagery Anonymous   Mon Jul 05 2004 03:20 PM
. * * Re: June CV storm summercyclone   Tue Jul 06 2004 09:53 AM
. * * Bertha don't you come around here, anymore... LI Phil   Tue Jul 06 2004 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Bertha don't you come around here, anymore... summercyclone   Tue Jul 06 2004 01:00 PM
. * * Re: Bertha don't you come around here, anymore... James88   Tue Jul 06 2004 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Bertha don't you come around here, anymore... James88   Tue Jul 06 2004 10:58 AM
. * * Bertha LI Phil   Tue Jul 06 2004 11:06 AM
. * * Re: Bertha James88   Tue Jul 06 2004 11:22 AM
. * * LI 'Canes LI Phil   Tue Jul 06 2004 11:36 AM
. * * Re: LI 'Canes James88   Tue Jul 06 2004 11:56 AM
. * * LI Express LI Phil   Tue Jul 06 2004 12:04 PM
. * * Re: LI Express Anonymous   Tue Jul 06 2004 12:55 PM
. * * Re: LI Express Steve hirsch.   Tue Jul 06 2004 01:11 PM
. * * Belle LI Phil   Tue Jul 06 2004 01:23 PM
. * * Donna James88   Tue Jul 06 2004 01:42 PM
. * * Re: LI Express James88   Tue Jul 06 2004 12:44 PM
. * * Re: LI Express LI Phil   Tue Jul 06 2004 12:54 PM
. * * Re: Off Fl? summercyclone   Tue Jul 06 2004 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Off Fl? James88   Tue Jul 06 2004 01:10 PM
. * * Re: More satellite imagery James88   Mon Jul 05 2004 03:34 PM
. * * Re: More satellite imagery LI Phil   Tue Jul 06 2004 05:14 AM
. * * Re: More satellite imagery James88   Tue Jul 06 2004 05:34 AM
. * * Re: More satellite imagery Rich B   Tue Jul 06 2004 05:42 AM
. * * Re: More satellite imagery James88   Tue Jul 06 2004 05:50 AM
. * * Re: More satellite imagery Rich B   Tue Jul 06 2004 07:39 AM
. * * Re: More satellite imagery Cycloneye   Tue Jul 06 2004 07:42 AM
. * * Re: More satellite imagery Steve hirsch.   Tue Jul 06 2004 08:02 AM
. * * Re: More satellite imagery James88   Tue Jul 06 2004 07:58 AM
. * * Re: looking at conditions... Jamiewx   Mon Jul 05 2004 01:50 PM
. * * Re: looking at conditions... James88   Mon Jul 05 2004 01:53 PM
. * * 95L invest for East Atlantic wave Cycloneye   Mon Jul 05 2004 02:00 PM
. * * Re: looking at conditions... James88   Mon Jul 05 2004 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Wave James88   Mon Jul 05 2004 12:04 PM
. * * Preparations h2ocean   Fri Jul 02 2004 10:52 PM
. * * Re: Preparations James88   Sat Jul 03 2004 05:59 AM
. * * Re: Preparations Cycloneye   Sat Jul 03 2004 07:17 AM
. * * Re: Bring on the Weather! Steve Hirschberg   Fri Jul 02 2004 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Bring on the Weather! Cycloneye   Fri Jul 02 2004 09:16 PM
. * * Ed Dunham John C   Fri Jul 02 2004 09:13 PM
. * * Re: Bring on the Weather! LI Phil   Fri Jul 02 2004 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Bring on the Weather! Tropics Guy   Fri Jul 02 2004 09:19 PM
. * * Re: Bring on the Weather! Storm Cooper   Sat Jul 03 2004 08:32 AM
. * * Happy Birthday America LI Phil   Sat Jul 03 2004 10:15 AM
. * * Re: Happy Birthday America Kevin   Sat Jul 03 2004 01:32 PM
. * * The USA at 228 and in decline... Steve   Sun Jul 04 2004 12:05 AM
. * * Re: The USA at 228 and in decline... Steve   Sun Jul 04 2004 12:11 AM
. * * Potential for development James88   Sun Jul 04 2004 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Potential for development HanKFranK   Sun Jul 04 2004 03:39 PM
. * * Re: Potential for development James88   Sun Jul 04 2004 04:04 PM
. * * Luis & AJ! LI Phil   Fri Jul 02 2004 09:29 PM

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