First off, I think politics kept 98L from being classified--NHC didn't want to scare people with a TD or TS during the DNC in Mass.
now for my analysis of the forecast models
first off, I see nothing on the ECMWF over the Gulf that catches my eye, and that particular model has a history of inaccuracy in recent years (example, weakening Isabel after three days last year on the Sep 7 run)
the UKMET, which is also rather unreliable, shows a weak low in the Gulf
the NOGAPS, which is moderately accurate, shows a very broad low in the Gulf in a few days, but weakens it
the CMC, a somewhat reliable model, shows a possible TD near SC, which everyone else seems to have seen also. I think it is possible in a few days, and may be like TD2 in 1994 (formed from a front, pressure at 1015 at landfall on July 20)
the AVN, which seems to be the most reliable, still shows something comming off of Africa in about 4 days, but nothing in the Gulf. Interestingly, the African low is forecast to be rather compact and organized by August 2, with pressure between 1004 and 1006. It has held with this forecast for a week now, and a "blocker" wave has come off of Africa, blocking the high pressure and forcing it north, and may lower the pressure enough in the eastern Atlantic for the next wave to survive and strengthen.
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