FLHurricane.com: Tropical Tremors

From famine to feast (well - almost). The Atlantic table no longer has a few meager scraps on it and the real start of the season is finally getting underway. I'll try to keep this short since I think that this thread may soon become obsolete.

In the past six hours the basin has really jump-started with activity. I guess that Mother Nature found the ignition switch. Invest 99L east of central Florida and moving just north of due west with a primary center near 28.9N 79.1W at 31/12Z. Convection remains south and east of the center and Recon did not find any significant wind this morning. The system is better organized and could become a significant rain maker for central Florida.

Update on 99L: Secondary center at 30.1N 77.2W at 14Z (moving northwest) now showing signs of becoming the primary center. It will be interesting to watch the interaction between this center and the developing system near 32N 62W.

Invest 90L still poorly organized near 23.7N 89.4W at 12Z. Movement continues to be toward the west with a small area of convection firing to the south of the center. Models still suggest eventual strengthening of this system.

West northwestward moving tropical wave near 8N 55.6W with good convection primarily to its south.

Wave south of Cuba near 19.7N 79.8W with convection refiring and very little movement.

Remnant ULL also refiring convection - possible weak LLCC at 22.6N 72.0W. Also with little movement - keep an eye on this one.

An ignored system with perhaps the best structure (and potential) at 32N 62W. This one has circulation and plenty of convection - signs of rapid intensification.

The southern connection with a vigorous wave at 10N 30W. This one has potential but it will take a few days to get better organized (if it does). I'm still a bit uncertain on this one.

The African connection: Strong wave near 11N 15W getting ready to exit the coast in the next 24 hours. Significant wave near 7N 15E if you really want to look at a system with long range potential.

Thats it - but that is a lot of areas to keep an eye on... and we will.
ED

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Current Aircraft Recon Info

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

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NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

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Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jul 31 2004 10:37 AM)

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