Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Relocation?
Sun Aug 01 2004 10:33 AM
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James,
further to what you said about TWC saying the centre is reforming nearer the deep convection; the Vortex Data Message from the Recon flight has given a fix more than 1' further south than the 32.5'N given in the intermediate advisory at 12z. This does indeed place the centre right on the northern edge of the deepest convection. As the circulation was earlier elongated, it could well be that there was more than one centre, or that the centre was trying to reform. However, the Vortex Message also shows winds at the surface no more than 30 mph, and a minimum extrapolated pressure of 1011 mb, 2 mb higher than NHC stated in the 12z advisory.
It will be interesting to see if NHC relocate the centre in the 15z package, and also what impact this may have on the intensity forecast.
Oh, and SSD is the Satellite Services Division of NOAA. Their TNumbers and positions can be found HERE
Regards
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
Edited by Rich B (Sun Aug 01 2004 10:38 AM)
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