Okay I've checked the new 91L models against the one from 12hrs ago. All 4 models, have reduced the latitude and lengthened the longitude. 00Z models were in the 14.1-14.7N and 57.6-59.0 range. 12Z models are showing 14.2-14.7N and 59.4-60.7W for 24hr period ending at 12Z on 80404. Intensity fcst remains at 37kts for 080404 12Z.
I don't have a lot of data on Alex's models. 12hr fcst was for 68kts. 90mph equals about 78kts. Looking back on the last 3 model outputs none of them took Alex above 77kts.
BAMD hit closest on lat/long. -0.2N/ -0.2W. Not bad at all for 12 hours. That should be about 15 miles off.
Ship report from 122nm NNE of 91L at 12Z.
C6QD2 S 1200z 15.60N -53.60W 122nm 8dg wind050@ 20.0kts - - - bar29.97 +0.00 airT82.4 seaT82.4 dpT79.9 vis6.2nm -
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Generated May 11, 2024, 10:19:58 AM EDT
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