ED In the link I provided there you and the rest of the members can see how the MJO is doing and now the Atlantic with those brown lines is in the dry phase or not favorable but once the green lines that are now in the Western Pacific spill into the Atlantic by late august things will get going big time coinciding with the start of the peak of the season.
-------------------- My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Generated May 11, 2024, 1:45:06 PM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center