I'm going to throw out a couple of reasons as to why I (IMO) think Charley is moving a little more westerly at this time. Naturally, I'm going to show you all a steering currents map: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/archive/wg8dlm1-2.html This image of the steering current map shows that 6 hours ago the ridge anchored in the Western Atlantic was extending towards 90 west. Naturally, Charley was moving wnw. 3 hours ago the ridge actually seemed to flatten out somewhat, causing a more westerly steering current. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html The most recent map that Charley may be caught up in a more east to west steering flow, but with the way these patterns change, Charley's more westerly movement probably won't last for a long time.
Oh and btw...does anyone here seem to think that NHC's 5 AM track was too far south? Their track from 11:00 PM last night may turn out to be more accurate.
Another reason for Charley's more westerly movement could possibly be the formation of an eye. This MIGHT be causing Charley to wobble a little.
On another note, more time over water and less interaction with Cuba could mean a stronger storm. I still expect Charley to hit Florida's west coast, with Tampa northward at a higher risk for a direct landfall.
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Generated May 9, 2024, 6:24:45 PM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center