I think the AVN is what you call "out to lunch," meaning that it is a right outlier. There's nothing out there to support it's scenario of an upper low along 30 N eroding the west side of the ridge and turning the storm north into another ridge, at least not that I can see.
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Generated May 18, 2024, 2:59:38 AM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center