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scottsvb1 Unregistered Re: Model Shift       Fri Sep 10 2004 02:38 AM Edit   Reply   Quote   Quick Reply   Hi colleen.....you been doing a great job here. I been watching your posts. Anyways to give ya a inside view, we here in florida really need to get ready for this.3rd time might be the biggie for west central florida. The models (even though some have went to the right, GFS now is more left with the rest outside of the nogaps. I think the Nogaps is now the outliner. I dont see Ivan getting past 85w, infact maybe not even 84w. I wont give out a landfall area until Friday afternoon or night but will say this ;we are going to get at the least Frances type winds Monday evening into Tuesday night at the least. Hurricane force is hard to pinpoint. To me, if i had to throw out a guess( which of course isnt my forcast yet) would be 2 scenerios. 1 A path from near Keywest or just west of there, moving NNE up around Naples area -Monday evening- thru center of the state and out just south of Daytona and making a 2nd landfall in south caronlina on Weds night. 2nd is still just around Key west or just west of there and moving N to near 27N and 83.5W and then turning more NNE or NE and moving inland around the Pasco-citrus county area on Tuesday morning, exiting around St Augustine-Jacksonville area and threatning the S Caronlina coast on Weds night (abouts). The models of the last 5-6 runs have moved left and right but generally come better together thru Monday somwhere around the west coast of florida. Worst case scenerio is the 2nd 1 for you and tampabay. Also yes it could be between the 2 solutions. There is still a smal chance of going up near Panama city and smaller of a glancing blow to the Keys and Miami and up through Grand Bahama......well I have about 18 hours or so to put out my 3 day landfall forcast. This was just a insight. Post Extras

Entire topic Subject Posted by Posted on Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit MikeC Fri Sep 10 2004 02:38 AM Thanks Sadie   Fri Sep 10 2004 12:17 AM Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit captgene   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:26 PM Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit captgene   Thu Sep 09 2004 10:54 PM Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit/where this crap going? slwfreez   Thu Sep 09 2004 09:03 PM Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit Bioman   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:29 PM Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit BeachBum   Thu Sep 09 2004 10:49 PM Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit Bioman   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:22 PM Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit kelcot   Thu Sep 09 2004 10:57 PM Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit kelcot   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:33 PM Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit okiherdu   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:17 PM Map update SkeetoBite   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:36 PM Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit Clark   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:11 PM For what it's worth... Clark   Thu Sep 09 2004 09:14 PM Re: For what it's worth... Rasvar   Thu Sep 09 2004 09:24 PM Re: For what it's worth... wezman1   Thu Sep 09 2004 09:28 PM Re: For what it's worth... MrSpock   Thu Sep 09 2004 09:34 PM Re: For what it's worth... Clark   Thu Sep 09 2004 09:29 PM Supplies in Manatee County Gone Bev   Thu Sep 09 2004 09:39 PM Re: Supplies in Manatee County Gone Clark   Thu Sep 09 2004 09:50 PM Re: Supplies in Manatee County Gone robynsmom   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:16 PM Re: Supplies in Manatee County Gone kelcot   Thu Sep 09 2004 09:58 PM Hmmmm StormHound   Thu Sep 09 2004 10:08 PM Re: Hmmmm Clark   Thu Sep 09 2004 10:22 PM Re: Hmmmm Rasvar   Thu Sep 09 2004 10:41 PM Re: Hmmmm BillD   Thu Sep 09 2004 10:47 PM Re: Hmmmm scottsvb1   Thu Sep 09 2004 10:44 PM Scottsvb StormHound   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:06 PM Re: Scottsvb StormHound   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:09 PM Re: Hmmmm BillD   Thu Sep 09 2004 10:52 PM Re: Hmmmm MikeC   Thu Sep 09 2004 10:55 PM S.E. Fla in the clear based upon Spagetti? MIAMIFL   Thu Sep 09 2004 10:51 PM Re: S.E. Fla in the clear based upon Spagetti? Clark   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:06 PM Re: S.E. Fla in the clear based upon Spagetti? MikeC   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:15 PM Maps SkeetoBite   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:22 PM Re: Maps Bev   Fri Sep 10 2004 01:12 AM Re: Maps rule   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:42 PM Re: Maps belleami   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:53 PM Re: Maps Bev   Fri Sep 10 2004 01:05 AM Re: Lived in Florida BeachBum   Fri Sep 10 2004 12:12 AM Re: Maps Terry Johnson   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:59 PM Re: Maps Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:34 PM Re: Maps Colleen A.   Fri Sep 10 2004 12:23 AM Re: Maps SirCane   Fri Sep 10 2004 12:36 AM Re: Maps mud1967   Fri Sep 10 2004 01:00 AM Re: Maps ewilby   Fri Sep 10 2004 01:24 AM Re: Maps Colleen A.   Fri Sep 10 2004 01:08 AM Re: Maps mud1967   Fri Sep 10 2004 01:21 AM Re: Maps Colleen A.   Fri Sep 10 2004 01:43 AM Re: Maps mud1967   Fri Sep 10 2004 01:56 AM Re: Maps Colleen A.   Fri Sep 10 2004 02:08 AM Tampa Bay Area - Flood Waters Bev   Fri Sep 10 2004 02:02 AM Re: Maps scottsvb1   Fri Sep 10 2004 12:44 AM Re: Maps meto   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:44 PM Re: The Layout javlin   Fri Sep 10 2004 12:06 AM Re: The Layout SirCane   Fri Sep 10 2004 12:18 AM Re: Accu wx javlin   Fri Sep 10 2004 12:33 AM Re: Maps SirCane   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:27 PM Re: Maps juniorgirl   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:52 PM Re: Maps scottsvb1   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:29 PM Re: Maps sullynole   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:33 PM Tired of hurricanes... Clark   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:09 PM Re: Tired of hurricanes... mud1967   Fri Sep 10 2004 12:17 AM Re: Tired of hurricanes... Clark   Fri Sep 10 2004 12:21 AM Re: Tired of hurricanes... mud1967   Fri Sep 10 2004 12:48 AM Re: Tired of hurricanes... andy1tom   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:50 PM Re: Tired of hurricanes... Wxwatcher2   Fri Sep 10 2004 01:26 AM Re: Tired of hurricanes... BillD   Fri Sep 10 2004 12:31 AM Re: Tired of hurricanes... Clark   Fri Sep 10 2004 12:19 AM Re: Tired of hurricanes... andy1tom   Fri Sep 10 2004 12:24 AM Re: Tired of hurricanes... wxman007   Fri Sep 10 2004 12:35 AM Re: Tired of hurricanes... andy1tom   Fri Sep 10 2004 12:42 AM Re: Tired of hurricanes... Kimster   Fri Sep 10 2004 12:41 AM Re: Tired of hurricanes... wxman007   Fri Sep 10 2004 12:54 AM Re: Tired of hurricanes... mud1967   Fri Sep 10 2004 01:09 AM Re: Tired of hurricanes... ewilby   Fri Sep 10 2004 01:34 AM Re: Tired of hurricanes... Colleen A.   Fri Sep 10 2004 01:49 AM Re: Tired of hurricanes... Sissy   Fri Sep 10 2004 01:52 AM Model Shift Bev   Fri Sep 10 2004 02:12 AM Re: Model Shift scottsvb1   Fri Sep 10 2004 02:38 AM I need to go back to bed Rasvar   Fri Sep 10 2004 07:30 AM Re: I need to go back to bed recmod   Fri Sep 10 2004 07:34 AM Re: I need to go back to bed GuppieGrouper   Fri Sep 10 2004 07:41 AM Re: I need to go back to bed Rasvar   Fri Sep 10 2004 07:51 AM Wind Field Maps Justin in Miami   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:25 AM Re: Model Shift seems in agreement bobbi   Fri Sep 10 2004 07:30 AM Re: Tired of hurricanes... Wxwatcher2   Fri Sep 10 2004 01:58 AM Re: Tired of hurricanes... mud1967   Fri Sep 10 2004 01:48 AM Re: Tired of hurricanes... Wxwatcher2   Fri Sep 10 2004 01:59 AM Re: Tired of hurricanes... BillD   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:27 PM Re: Tired of hurricanes... belleami   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:33 PM Re: Tired of hurricanes... scottsvb1   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:35 PM Re: Tired of hurricanes... Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:36 PM Re: Tired of hurricanes... jaybythebay   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:19 PM Re: Tired of hurricanes... mud1967   Fri Sep 10 2004 12:08 AM Re: S.E. Fla in the clear based upon Spagetti? BillD   Thu Sep 09 2004 10:58 PM Re: S.E. Fla in the clear based upon Spagetti? scottsvb1   Thu Sep 09 2004 10:53 PM Re: S.E. Fla in the clear based upon Spagetti? scottsvb1   Thu Sep 09 2004 10:56 PM Re: Hmmmm StormHound   Thu Sep 09 2004 10:40 PM Re: Hmmmm rule   Thu Sep 09 2004 10:15 PM Re: Ivan possible postponements Jeffmidtown   Thu Sep 09 2004 09:49 PM Re: Supplies in Manatee County Gone Rasvar   Thu Sep 09 2004 09:46 PM Re: For what it's worth... Martha   Thu Sep 09 2004 09:36 PM Ever so slightly shifting west.... is this a trend? Frank P   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:09 PM Re: Ever so slightly shifting west.... is this a trend? Colleen A.   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:18 PM GFS Model VolusiaMike   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:35 PM Re: GFS Model MrSpock   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:47 PM Girls Lie too.... Frank P   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:35 PM Re: Girls Lie too.... MrSpock   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:46 PM Re: Girls Lie too.... Colleen A.   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:57 PM Re: Girls Lie too.... MrSpock   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:59 PM Latest Vortex recmod   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:53 PM Re: Latest Vortex Colleen A.   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:24 PM This was interesting belleami   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:34 PM Re: This was interesting DroopGB31   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:51 PM Re: This was interesting kelcot   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:00 PM Re: This was interesting Heather   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:06 PM Re: This was interesting BillD   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:28 PM Re: This was interesting Kevin   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:34 PM Re: This was interesting Heather   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:41 PM Re: This was interesting Terra   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:50 PM Re: This was interesting kelcot   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:04 PM Re: This was interesting HadItinOrlando   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:08 PM Re: This was interesting kelcot   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:21 PM Re: This was interesting kelcot   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:11 PM Here's your 8PM intermediate advisory... Kevin   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:05 PM Re: Here's your 8PM intermediate advisory... Kimster   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:16 PM Re: Here's your 8PM intermediate advisory... MrSpock   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:08 PM Vortex translation Frank P   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:13 PM Models Jamiewx   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:17 PM Re: Models Colleen A.   Thu Sep 09 2004 09:04 PM Re: Models meto   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:28 PM Re: Vortex translation MrSpock   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:17 PM Re: Vortex translation Rasvar   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:41 PM Re: Vortex translation Frank P   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:31 PM Re: Vortex translation MrSpock   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:40 PM Re: Vortex translation BillD   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:54 PM Models Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 09 2004 09:04 PM Re: Models wxman007   Thu Sep 09 2004 09:08 PM Re: Models andy1tom   Thu Sep 09 2004 09:39 PM Re: Vortex translation rd522525   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:38 PM Re: Vortex translation Kevin   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:28 PM Re: Latest Vortex Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:32 PM Grenada, Frances, Apprentice, RUReady for... LI Phil   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:23 PM Re: Grenada, Frances, Apprentice, RUReady for... Colleen A.   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:43 PM Re: Grenada, Frances, Apprentice, RUReady for... trinibaje   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:32 PM Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit LI Phil   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:05 PM Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit LI Phil   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:07 PM thanks for all the excellent discussion the gulf   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:55 PM Thoughts.... wxman007   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:14 PM Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit Steve   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:12 PM

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