I thought the FSU Super Ensemble might be pointing at something other than a SW Florida hit. That's the only explanation that I could fathom as to why the NHC track shifted slightly to the left at 11am (though I think the SW Florida scenario is most likely at this point). I suppose we'll see just how much weight the NHC folks put behind this model when the next advisory is issued.
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Generated May 16, 2024, 4:44:43 PM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center