The probabilities are one of the must confusing products NHC puts out. I almost wish they did not have it. It is simply a percentage chance with a factor of time that the storm will pass within a certain distance of the point. his advisory was within 65 nautical miles of the particular point. Therfore most places nearby are going to have a higher percentage.
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Generated May 14, 2024, 9:16:30 PM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center