There is no wsw jog,, just about due west with the eye interacting with the mid level flow e-w along the coast of the island. This is expected and expect a wnw - nw course to begin against by morning. One important thing to note. The models again shift west. This might be in part of the upper low way to the east ( south of Bermuda) itching more W then expected and pushing the N-S ridge a bit more into the Bahamas-Eastern Florida. We will now know by tomorrow afternoon if landfall will happen Tampa or south. By time the 12z runs come out this afternoon coming up and they have the same area as the currect oz run or further west, then a shift to the Panhandle near Panama City will be the location of landfall on weds. Again really we will look at the 6z runs and expecially the major 12z run on saturday to know if Tampa south might be in only TS winds or less.
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Generated May 14, 2024, 10:20:07 PM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center