I'm trying to figure out why this westward jog was such a surprise and has everyone scrambling to change their forecast. My understanding the entire time was that it was forecast to either 1) go over the western tip of Jamaica or, 2) skirt just to the south of the island. Seems to me it's doing exactly what they said. Maybe not staying exactly on that red line they drew but definitely doing what they said in their discussion.
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Generated May 15, 2024, 12:01:10 PM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center