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I can't recall, in past years, having quite the dramatic changes in the models, and forecast tracks, that we have been seeing this year ie. Charley, Frances, Ivan.

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Yes, this is the first year of 5-day fcsts being released to the public, and we're seeing some of the short-term effects of how the media is handling the new information. Seems like a lot more confusion because we hear more people saying a variety of different things farther in advance. A lot of people talk as if the storm is going to hit their little corner of the world, which might just be true in some circumstances. The media can do a better job of educating, rather than just reacting to and propogating the hysteria.
The forecast tracks, models, etc. may seem a little more eratic, but that's because we've had way more than our usual number of storms around Florida, and Florida is at the latitude where a number of storms make their transition from the easterly tropics to the variable sub-tropics. The most difficult part of forecasting tropical cyclones is when they slow down or turn. Actually, I thought NHC has been very stable and consistent this year, despite the very unique challenges.

Edited by RevUp (Sat Sep 11 2004 12:39 PM)

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