FLHurricane.com: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Continuing from the last thread:

DarthYankee,

Funny thing happened on the way to my synopsis of Joe B report making "zero zilch no" sense eh? Looked at the Goes 12 lately? I'll give you a hint - the 500mb UK Met today is doing the same thing it was yesterday. GFS has jumped on line with Ivan's remnants but hasn't caught onto Jeanne yet. Remember, if Joe's forecast verifies, it's not going to happen until late week. But maybe you can start to appreciate the magnitude of the strongest high pressure (maybe not in mb's but certainly in scope) of the season. Then again, maybe not. But I'd advise you to put the below link in motion:

Animate this link

richie,

I don't agree with either you and Spock on the second to last page of the prior thread. None of accuweather's stuff is written in stone, and that's hardly the way Joe presents himself on tv, his site or his column. You're simply mischaracterizing him.

This is utter bull**** because you're so hormoned out over Accuweather presenting something other than the official track. Joe said he believes it will hit the US and be off the Bahamas as a cat 2 or 3 after 5-6 days. If it doesn't verify, rest assured he will be the first one to tell you so and why. So unless you're paying your $14.95 a month, don't mischaracterize the truth to serve your own agenda:

I'll vent a little more on this subject myself. It seems to me, from what I've seen, that after their first "written in stone" forecast" doesn't verify then there is never an admittance that we were wrong here and here is an updated forecast of what we now believe will happen. It's like it's all just forgotten and they just move on with their new "written in stone" forecast. You see, in my opinion, if you are going to go out on a limb and predict something is going to happen with "absolute authority" then when you are wrong you ought to be able to humble yourself just a little and admit It. Besides, what is so wrong witth putting out an NHC projected path but then saying " Here, in our opinion, is what we believe it will do". Once again, I know what I saw and heard..."This storm WILL hit the US!"...right, Mr. Spock? The fact is...nodody knows.

That my friend is absolute b.s. and a complete mischaracterization. Nothing personal of course, but you obviously don't get the big picture.
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Spock,

>>As far as JB, he also DIDN"T NEED TO say cat II or better in S. Fla. for Jeanne in the time frame he did.

That's what he believes. People accuse him of hyping and sensationalism. He likes the extreme stuff (as apparently so do we). But that was his opinion. I have not read today's post, but let me see...

He thinks it's cat 2 or 3 by Tuesday/Wed with all options open. Ivan's MLC should split south and southwest tonight bringing gales to the northern GA coast and end up in the NE Gulf by around Monday nigh (depending on what's left). The irony woul dbe something heading toward the West and Central Gulf (again, due to the pattern, similar to way Gaston was sniffed out 2 weeks before anything was there) that is neither Ivan nor Jeanne, but could be one or both.

I said last Thursday morning on S2K and posed a challenge in 3 different threads for any of the met gurus to figure out what is the most complex tropical situation we've seen in forever. Bastardi also acknowledges(ed) the same thing and presents his opinion as such.

Steve

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