She is not moving west!......yet. A bit of a wedge currently exists with the trough that is between Jeanne and the Bahamas, but as the ridge to the north builds over Jeanne she will begin her SW/W movement. What's problemmatic is that she is moving farther south during this period, and could be below 25N before the turn. Second problem is this is a deep layered ridge that will allow her to come westward more than most models are seeing. Usually I don't favor westward moves in these circumstances at this position, but the strength and width of the ridge argue for a move that can bring it dangerously close to East Central Florida (ala NOGAPS 0Z run). Interesting again will be the 12Z run; but to tell you the truth, I'm getting tired of all this, and wish she would just get on with her business so we could can on with ours!! Cheers!!
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Generated May 19, 2024, 6:25:08 PM EDT
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