Scott, been keeping an eye on the NOGAPS and UKMET, and they all remind me of your forecast. I too had the same feeling that Jeanne would come in a bit further south than the models had shown. Probably due to their poor track record with the other systems and the way they had the ridges interacting with them. Especially the GFS which in turn influences a lot of the other models. Jeanne has definitely picked up forward speed this afternoon into this evening, and I can't help but feel that this would shift the track even further west. I was actually surprised that the NHC hadn't moved it to the left a little further, but that's probably due to their usage of the GFS and GFDL.
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Generated May 20, 2024, 1:05:41 AM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center