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scottsvb1 Unregistered Re: lets wake up       Fri Oct 08 2004 01:18 PM Edit   Reply   Quote   Quick Reply   Over the last 24hours the LLC that went inland near Tampico dissapaited while the midlevel low stayed offshore. As the night progresed into the predawn hours a new LLC developed just south of the midlevel low as pressures in the area were relatively low near 1007mb and strong ts with cloud tops as cold as -60 were over the area. Nevertheless a new LLC has formed (which happens alot with broad area of low pressures) and recon is being sent in again to find out not only if this is a TD but if this is a tropical storm. I'm not sure if they will call it a storm but if they find any pressure lower then what we have now then I feel it should be named. Winds over the gulf in the strong convection show wind gusts up to 48mph and close to tropical storm strength offshore the LA coast. Movement should be off to the NE and then go ENE nearing the coast. I feel the models are too N with the movement of the system but its not out of the question. Westerlys are pretty far south right now and might dig just alittle more. Strength is hard to tell. Models expect this to come inland in 24-36hours. If it stays more ENE then it wont make landfall till Sunday night or Monday morning and that will give it more time to strengthn. Water temps are marginal from N.O. thru Panama City but farther offshore near 83dg. Water temps near Tampa are near 82dg. I expect it can have a chance to get close to Hurricane strength later Saturday night into Sunday morning if it goes more ene although shear will be the main inhibitor. The shear will though be less also if it stays more ene cause it will be further south from the main westerly shear north of the system. Also the system will be moving along with the flow of the upper winds so the shear will be less. Anyways right now its recon and NHC call then we can figure out the exact path and strength. I feel this will be at least 50-60mph at landfall but again it could be up to Hurricane strength by sunday morning as I see it could go further east. Post Extras

Entire topic Subject Posted by Posted on Something new in the Bay of Campeche Storm Cooper Fri Oct 08 2004 01:18 PM HVY Rain possibility for W and N Gulf Coast danielw   Thu Oct 07 2004 04:34 AM Re: HVY Rain possibility for W and N Gulf Coast ShanaTX   Thu Oct 07 2004 08:06 AM Scatt... LI Phil   Thu Oct 07 2004 11:22 AM Five for Florida? Kal   Thu Oct 07 2004 12:07 PM Re: Five for Florida? Storm Cooper   Thu Oct 07 2004 12:27 PM Re: Five for Florida? andy1tom   Thu Oct 07 2004 12:36 PM Re: Five for Florida? grasshopper2   Thu Oct 07 2004 01:04 PM Re: Five for Florida? andy1tom   Thu Oct 07 2004 01:55 PM Re: Five for Florida? grasshopper2   Thu Oct 07 2004 02:34 PM Re: Five for Florida? DroopGB31   Thu Oct 07 2004 02:43 PM Re: Five for Florida? scottsvb1   Thu Oct 07 2004 02:33 PM Re: Five for Florida? doug   Thu Oct 07 2004 02:53 PM Re: Five for Florida? scottsvb1   Thu Oct 07 2004 03:19 PM Re: Five for Florida? Bloodstar   Thu Oct 07 2004 04:25 PM Re: Five for Florida? Keith234   Thu Oct 07 2004 05:04 PM recon Storm Hunter   Thu Oct 07 2004 05:50 PM Re: recon Keith234   Thu Oct 07 2004 05:53 PM Re: recon Anony   Thu Oct 07 2004 06:43 PM Re: recon Keith(234)   Thu Oct 07 2004 07:17 PM Re: recon summercyclone   Thu Oct 07 2004 07:29 PM Re: recon Keith234   Thu Oct 07 2004 08:08 PM Re: recon Rabbit   Thu Oct 07 2004 09:01 PM Re: recon Keith234   Thu Oct 07 2004 09:03 PM Re: recon scottsvb1   Thu Oct 07 2004 09:12 PM Re: recon Keith234   Thu Oct 07 2004 09:33 PM Re: recon scottsvb1   Thu Oct 07 2004 09:14 PM Scott, I'm confused... LI Phil   Thu Oct 07 2004 09:27 PM Re: Scott, I'm confused... ShanaTX   Thu Oct 07 2004 09:51 PM Re: Scott, I'm confused... LI Phil   Thu Oct 07 2004 09:53 PM Re: Scott, I'm confused... ShanaTX   Thu Oct 07 2004 10:04 PM Re: Scott, I'm confused... LI Phil   Thu Oct 07 2004 10:17 PM Re: Scott, I'm confused... Hurric   Thu Oct 07 2004 10:33 PM Re: Scott, I'm confused... Redbird   Fri Oct 08 2004 09:49 AM Re: Scott, I'm confused... DMFischer   Fri Oct 08 2004 10:15 AM Re: Scott, I'm confused... GuppieGrouper   Thu Oct 07 2004 11:14 PM Re: Scott, I'm confused... Hurric   Fri Oct 08 2004 07:13 AM Re: Scott, I'm confused... GuppieGrouper   Fri Oct 08 2004 07:41 AM Re: Scott, I'm confused... Katie   Fri Oct 08 2004 10:50 AM Not for nothin', but... LI Phil   Fri Oct 08 2004 11:28 AM Re: Not for nothin', but... anony   Fri Oct 08 2004 12:07 PM Re: lets wake up doug   Fri Oct 08 2004 12:18 PM Re: lets wake up Ronn   Fri Oct 08 2004 01:59 PM Re: lets wake up Anony   Fri Oct 08 2004 02:38 PM Re: lets wake up Ronn   Fri Oct 08 2004 03:09 PM Re: lets wake up LI Phil   Fri Oct 08 2004 02:40 PM Re: lets wake up Anony   Fri Oct 08 2004 03:15 PM Re: lets wake up Anony   Fri Oct 08 2004 03:18 PM Re: lets wake up Anony   Fri Oct 08 2004 03:23 PM Matthew Advisory #1 recmod   Fri Oct 08 2004 05:05 PM Re: lets wake up LI Phil   Fri Oct 08 2004 03:28 PM Re: lets wake up Kimberley Clark   Fri Oct 08 2004 03:43 PM Re: lets wake up LI Phil   Fri Oct 08 2004 03:53 PM Re: lets wake up Kimberley Clark   Fri Oct 08 2004 03:53 PM Re: lets wake up anony   Fri Oct 08 2004 04:17 PM Maybe Matthew... LI Phil   Fri Oct 08 2004 04:28 PM Re: Maybe Matthew... LI Phil   Fri Oct 08 2004 04:32 PM Re: Maybe Matthew... Rasvar   Fri Oct 08 2004 04:38 PM Matthew @ 5:00 LI Phil   Fri Oct 08 2004 04:54 PM Re: Matthew @ 5:00 Kimberley Clark   Fri Oct 08 2004 04:55 PM Re: Matthew @ 5:00 LI Phil   Fri Oct 08 2004 05:00 PM Re: lets wake up Storm Cooper   Fri Oct 08 2004 03:29 PM Re: lets wake up LI Phil   Fri Oct 08 2004 03:30 PM Re: lets wake up Rabbit   Fri Oct 08 2004 03:20 PM Re: lets wake up Storm Cooper   Fri Oct 08 2004 12:31 PM Re: lets wake up LI Phil   Fri Oct 08 2004 12:25 PM Re: lets wake up Steve hirschb.   Fri Oct 08 2004 12:52 PM Re: lets wake up scottsvb1   Fri Oct 08 2004 01:18 PM Re: lets wake up Storm Cooper   Fri Oct 08 2004 01:28 PM incipient matthew HanKFranK   Fri Oct 08 2004 01:46 PM Re: incipient matthew scottsvb1   Fri Oct 08 2004 02:03 PM More West Cocoa Beach   Fri Oct 08 2004 01:08 PM Re: Not for nothin', but... James88   Fri Oct 08 2004 11:47 AM Re: Scott, I'm confused... doug   Fri Oct 08 2004 09:21 AM Re: Scott, I'm confused... scottsvb1   Fri Oct 08 2004 01:47 AM Re: Scott, I'm confused... Storm Cooper   Fri Oct 08 2004 03:32 AM RE:Tropical Weather Discussion DMFischer   Thu Oct 07 2004 11:14 PM Re: Scott, I'm confused... Hurric   Thu Oct 07 2004 09:59 PM Re: recon Rabbit   Thu Oct 07 2004 06:37 PM water vapor Storm Hunter   Thu Oct 07 2004 06:31 PM Re: Five for Florida? Storm Cooper   Thu Oct 07 2004 01:19 PM Re: Five for Florida? Storm Cooper   Thu Oct 07 2004 12:38 PM Re: Five for Florida? scottsvb1   Thu Oct 07 2004 12:40 PM Re: Five for Florida? devin   Thu Oct 07 2004 12:48 PM Re: Five for Florida? LI Phil   Thu Oct 07 2004 12:52 PM Re: Scatt... Ronn   Thu Oct 07 2004 11:37 AM Re: Scatt... James88   Thu Oct 07 2004 11:53 AM SW Gulf Of Mexico danielw   Thu Oct 07 2004 05:19 AM 5AM CDT Tropical WX Outlook danielw   Thu Oct 07 2004 05:25 AM

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