Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico
Sat Oct 09 2004 01:02 AM
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Sorry, but I disagree. In my opinion, the tropical cyclone was a TD this morning, but not a TS - and certainly not yesterday when it was still poorly organized. One person's opinion (including mine) does not make it necessarily so. Measurement and analysis are the real tools that settle the question, not opinion.
As to TS Matthew, I'm still having trouble visualizing the northward leg of the forecast track - I just can't find any significant support for it. The storm may well continue on a general east northeast course for the next few days. If that happens, I'd look for landfall (as a 50 knot Tropical Storm) somewhere between the mouth of the Suwannee River and Cedar Key around 22Z Monday evening with exit near Palm Valley at 09Z on the 12th (at 40 knots). Since Matthew has hybrid characteristics, it would probably hold TS status across the northern Peninsula. Its a rather small system, so both the wind field and the rainfall should not be widespread. Earlier today the GFDL did bring it up to hurricane status, but I think that the westerly shear is too great for that much intensification to take place. At any rate is sure looks like yet another storm for Florida in 2004.
Cheers,
ED
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