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danielw Moderator Reged: Wed Posts: 3525 Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W) Re: Matthew...stick a fork in him, he's done.       Sat Oct 09 2004 10:42 PM Edit   Reply   Quote   Quick Reply   TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 09 2004 STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR HAS AGAIN STRIPPED MATTHEW OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE AMPLE SHIP REPORTS TO SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR NOW. WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION CURRENTLY SEPARATING FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR MATTHEW TO STRENGTHEN APPRECIABLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN MATTHEW WILL PROBABLY MAKE LANDFALL AS A DEPRESSION. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM MATTHEW CONTINUES TO BE COASTAL SURGE AND INLAND RAIN FLOODING.... ....NOW THAT MATTHEW IS ONLY A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL THE EASTWARD MOTION HAS STOPPED...AND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS MATTHEW HAS MOVED ESSENTIALLY NORTHWARD. AS CONVECTION COMES AND GOES THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL JUMPS TO THE LEFT AND STEPS TO THE RIGHT...BUT SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG...THE MORE NORTHERLY MOTION SHOULD PREVAIL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND UKMET GUIDANCE... AND A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE EASTWARD JOG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. Edited by danielw (Sat Oct 09 2004 10:45 PM) Post Extras

Entire topic Subject Posted by Posted on Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear Ed Dunham Sat Oct 09 2004 10:42 PM Administrative Notes Ed Dunham   Sun Oct 10 2004 09:49 AM Re: Matthew weakens Sean2   Sun Oct 10 2004 10:32 AM Re: Matthew weakens Storm Cooper   Sun Oct 10 2004 11:05 AM Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear FireAng   Sat Oct 09 2004 03:29 PM Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear anony   Sat Oct 09 2004 03:45 PM Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear Steve Hirschb.   Sat Oct 09 2004 04:01 PM Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear anony   Sat Oct 09 2004 04:55 PM Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear mbfly   Sat Oct 09 2004 08:49 PM Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear danielw   Sat Oct 09 2004 09:05 PM Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear mbfly   Sat Oct 09 2004 09:15 PM Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear Matt033   Sat Oct 09 2004 09:30 PM Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear Terra   Sat Oct 09 2004 09:41 PM Re: Matthew...stick a fork in him, he's done. Storm Cooper   Sat Oct 09 2004 10:33 PM Re: Matthew...stick a fork in him, he's done. danielw   Sat Oct 09 2004 10:42 PM Re: Matthew...stick a fork in him, he's done. Steve   Sat Oct 09 2004 10:54 PM He's Not Done Yet ! danielw   Sun Oct 10 2004 04:21 AM SubTropical Storm Nicole forms off Bermuda danielw   Sun Oct 10 2004 04:38 AM Matthew Spawning Tornadoes danielw   Sun Oct 10 2004 06:34 AM Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear Matt033   Sat Oct 09 2004 08:04 PM Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear Storm Cooper   Sat Oct 09 2004 10:19 AM Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear LI Phil   Sat Oct 09 2004 10:52 AM Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear andy1tom(me)   Sat Oct 09 2004 12:53 PM Matthew and rain... Steve   Sat Oct 09 2004 02:54 PM Re: Matthew making a last run Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 09 2004 03:08 PM Re: Matthew making a last run anony   Sat Oct 09 2004 03:44 PM

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