HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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Re: Weekend Weather!! Not Whether
Fri Oct 15 2004 05:30 PM
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it's time for the gulf ssts to drop below support threshold anyway, as a function of season. keith, the upper pattern that develops around the gulf this late in the season acts to kill whatever leftover chances of development there are from marginal ssts.. if you don't believe me go check the archive data and see how many tropical cyclones form in the gulf after october 15th.
97L still looking nearly subtropical, but progged to become less distinct over time as a complex of other lows develops nearby in the upper trough.
lower BOC activity very depressed.. atypical for a feature like that to spawn anything this late in the year.
globals still hinting at central atlantic cyclogenesis (tropical or non, who can say). late in the period gfs thinks a low should develop in the sw caribbean, due to pattern. all this makes me think one more storm this month if anything at all.
westpac activity still blasting away, eastpac disturbances still active.. there ought to be another shot or two this season, but the really bad things from earlier likely ended with jeanne's departure.
HF 2125z15october
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