FLHurricane.com: Potential Late Season Development

My repsonse to the NHC request for comment: Missing are the examples I supplied in graphics format.....

To whom it may concern,

Thank you for the opportunity to comment on your proposals for changes in your Tropical Cyclone forecast graphics.

First, a comment on your #1, the current format. Basically, it is a good tool in the 3+ day forecast range when the forecast errors are relatively large. It does show the most probable path AND it shows the estimate about possible errors in the forecast. What it lacks is better depiction of two additional periods of interest, the 1-3 day forecast and the less than 1 day forecast.

As to your #2 candidate, the public will lose confidence in the forecast from the NHC because of the emphasis of 'we don't know where it is going, but it will probably be somewhere near here, plus or minus a state or two' image the 2nd candidate implies. Don't remove the centerline which suggests your best guess.

I truly do NOT like #3 because while it addresses the concept of an area of effect, what it is really saying is 'the storm center will be *somewhere* inside of this circle but we don't have a clue as to where. Further, it implies that the storm is intensifying and covering a larger area as time progresses. That isn't necessarily true and I don't think you want to imply the storm is changing size with time that the circles of confusion seem to imply.

I would like to suggest another possibility. One graphics format does not necessarily fit all. To wit:

Given that your current format does a good job in the 3+ day forecast time range, I suggest it be retained relatively unchanged.

From 1 to 3 days, the forecast, while still having margins of error, should have become much more accurate and the path representing the probable track should be less likely to be so inaccurate that people shouldn't be looking more closely at the likely area of effect from the storm. During that time period, I suggest changing to the NRL graphics format which show the forecast track AND likely windfields in each quadrant. An example (becuase I don't have copies of earlier storms) their depiction of TS Otto:

[image]

During the less than one day period of the forecast, it is likely that major changes in your forecast path will be infrequent so a format showing some detail is in order. Skeetobyte.com has excellent graphics that probably saved lives during this last period by answering the quest ion "Yeah, but will it affect ME?" questions based upon your official forecast. Because it showed major roads and highways, the public could relate to both the path and the windfield in relationship to their own position. His depicitions convinced many of my neighbors to evacuate their mobile homes when they realized the storm was not a point or a line, but an AREA. In this time frame, your forecast graphics should emphasize that aspect much more than your current format does. I would seriously suggest you consider the maps at :

http://www.skeetobite.com/weather/

Below are a few thumbnail graphics from a recent storm. His graphics are excellent in the less than 24 hour to current time range. I sincerely recommend that you visit that site to see what was done to your official forecasts and how the detail and depicitons of your official forecasts 'talk to' a lot of people, answering their questions about if the storm will affect 'them'. The third thumbnail was one I used to convince my neighbors that the storm wasn't just a point or a line, but an entire area and just how far the storm force winds extended relative to us (Orlando in this case) and emphasizing that at landfall, we would already be under TS force winds and preparations and possible evacuations needed to be done BEFORE the storm go to us or even made landfall. The standard NHC graphics simply do not convey this important, potentially lifesaving information.

[images and thumbnails]

In summary, consider a three tier graphics format. One size does NOT fit all nor is any one of the proposed graphics solutions good at depicting all of the important time ranges in the forecasts.

Again, thank you for the opportunity to comment and I hope these comments will lead you in the direction of providing more, not less information and additionally convey the concept of areas of effect in addition to the points of center fall positions.

Richard Creighton
Member #15 of flhurricane.com but not a principal of the website.

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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!

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