Excellent analysis Ed (yeah, like I'd know), but it certainly seems reasonable in mid-January. I think we should all update our numbers in April, and then again, just before June 1. I share your thoughts about ENSO and the weak el nino not being too much of a factor. Of course, the SOI, PNA, NAO, CIA & FBI will also have to be considered.
Also a question...should we get an "off season" storm such as we had in 2003, with Ana, Odette & Peter, I know they would "officially" count towards predictions, but for our purposes here, should we only count our "in season" storms towards our totals? Just a thought, I'll leave the call up to Mr. Dunham.
Please inform the varmint his constantly changing numbers will be subject to editing this season. His 6/1/05 guess WILL remain in his signature ALL SEASON.
Thank you. Thank you very much.
Cheers,
LI Phil
Everything counts, including Subtropical Storms - no matter what the month. If we get 3 named storms before June 1st, I'd imagine that quite a few folks will be updating their numbers 
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jan 15 2005 09:46 PM)
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