ENSO-warm-phase subject to change as time progresses, I feel that if it is active in the summer time, that southern "jet" really will retreat the mean sub-tropical ridge, father west and north then normal.
QBO( Quasi-Biennial Oscillation)-peaked in August this year at -24 eastery phase, that tells you something...forecasted to go westerly for the next 12 months and once again peaking in late August and September only this time the opposite.
ATC (Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation)- in the strong phase for the decade at least, but subject to large fluctuation a la 2002. Probably produce some warmer then normal waters (noticeable) in the Caribbean and the GOM, usually suspects.
NAO-This year was positive at least as a mean. Really pumped the subby, thereafter steered just about every storm into the GOM Florida region...next year as a average I feel it will be positive, or just higher up - not necessarily in the mid-Atlantic coast region. Suggesting that the flow will favor recurviving storms.
Mean Development Region
Gulf of Mexico area/Caribbean sea- probably see an early storm pop up off the coast of South America ride it's way over the Yutcan and get into the Bay of Campeche (TD). See 1 major hurricane impacting the mouth of Mississippi area late July early August and then a tropical storm late in the end of September.
Florida/Southeast - not nearly as many storms as this year, 2 hurricanes storms one CAT 2 and one CAT 3 brushing the coast area on they're recurvature, but no direct hits. Maybe a tropical storm *late*, obviously too early to tell! Phew!!
OB area- I'm going to be "banging the drum" for CV systems to hit this area, only because the set up of the flow. It does along with the past record s following strong hurricanes hitting Florida. So a total of 5 storms will impact the area - three being hurricanes- two majors, Bermuda (homegrown) development (especially when negative MJO), and one tropical storm forming near the Bahamas, ala Jeanne.
New England Coast - 1 tropical storm, with significant coastal flooding and beach erosion from every storm, especially CV systems that partially touch land, in the middle of the season.
Eastern Atlantic- Two TD’s form become “Fish spinners” recurve in late July.
Month by Month
June- early storm,* relatively* quiet. Many people will anticipate the first hurricane too early and try and develop things that have no physical chance! Late June, waves start picking up one may develop by the end of June, track into July.
July- active with 2 of the major hurricanes impacting the Florida/GOM area, MJO starting to drop negative by the end of the month. Homegrown development in GOM very early, affecting Texas.
August- Very active (once again) with no respite as the “Wave train” reaches a maximum, and MJO hits the bottom. NAO positive with some minor changes. OB get's all their majors!
September - Slowing down, but GOM and Florida get some action, with a sudden deja vu of last year. Though only 2 storms, they will be the strongest of the season when on approach to Florida, devastation occurs in Bahamas yet again.
October/November- Wave gets blocked by ridge dropping down, briefly but enough to significantly recurve the system. Rides up coast near miss on OB but just brushes the Delmarva peninsula at moving at a speed over 30 mph. Polar Votex sets up in Eastern Canada...winter pattern predominate and hurricane season ends in a brusque manner.
In conclusion...I’m calling for 12 Storms... 4 majors, 2 non-majors, 3 Tropical Storms, and three TD. As Clark said, nothing out of the ordinary...this is just preliminary!
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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