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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
      Wed Jun 01 2005 02:09 PM

Quote:

We have had above average rain in south Florida this May,does that mean a weak Bermuda high?And does a weak Bermuda high mean south Fl. will be spared?




First thing you have to do is examine exactly where the rainfall in SFL has been above average. The map on this link is good for viewing rainfall totals:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/curre/rainmaps/monthly.html
Only three of the counties on this map experienced above average rainfall during May. The rest of them had below average rainfall. Moreover, the "district average" was .68 inches below normal for the month. Sure, a few counties clocked in with decently above average totals, but overall I'd call May slightly below average for South Florida.

Another important point to make is the timing of the rainfall. The past few days have been pretty rainy for much of the Florida Peninsula, right? In fact, we had some decent batches of rain come across the peninsula late last night. Now, does the May rainfall/Florida hurricanes relationship some kind of switch that automatically goes off 12 AM on 1 June? With so much rainfall occuring so late in the month, I'd be weary of just how much these late totals really count.

And then there's the argument that you can't really predict Florida (or US) landfalls several months in advance. Dr. Gray has been one of the foremost experts to state that landfall predictions months in advance simply cannot be made (with accuracy) at this time. This is the stance that I tend to agree with. Since the advent of the 3 day forecast track, hurricane forecasters have at one time or another experienced problems in producing accurate forecasts. Three months in advance? Forget about it. It simply is not possible to predict the small variations that can occur in the atmosphere months in advance. Sure, the Bermuda High might be weaker than average for the majority of the summer, but if the position and strength are right for just ONE storm, disaster can occur.

This argument has come up before, but it is one worth recalling from time to time.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today MikeCAdministrator Wed Jun 01 2005 02:09 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Toto   Sun Jun 05 2005 11:09 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today GuppieGrouper   Mon Jun 06 2005 06:11 AM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today tornado00   Mon Jun 06 2005 09:17 AM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Wingman51   Mon Jun 06 2005 12:33 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Clark   Mon Jun 06 2005 12:58 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Wingman51   Mon Jun 06 2005 01:01 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today doug   Mon Jun 06 2005 01:26 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today mysticalmooons   Mon Jun 06 2005 01:47 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today doug   Mon Jun 06 2005 02:11 PM
. * * Interesting Colleen A.   Mon Jun 06 2005 03:36 PM
. * * Re: Interesting rmbjoe1954   Mon Jun 06 2005 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Ryan   Mon Jun 06 2005 06:24 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Londovir   Sat Jun 04 2005 02:29 AM
. * * NDBC has some new bouys, here's your link Frank P   Sat Jun 04 2005 08:53 AM
. * * Re: NDBC has some new bouys, here's your link Cycloneye11   Sat Jun 04 2005 05:51 PM
. * * Re: NDBC has some new bouys, here's your link Frank P   Sat Jun 04 2005 06:35 PM
. * * Re: NDBC has some new bouys, here's your link Kandis McClung   Sat Jun 04 2005 01:46 PM
. * * Re: NDBC has some new bouys, here's your link Keith234   Sat Jun 04 2005 04:30 PM
. * * Re: NDBC has some new bouys, here's your link Heather   Sun Jun 05 2005 01:12 PM
. * * near 42506 mikeG   Sun Jun 05 2005 01:44 PM
. * * Re: near 42506 stormchazer   Sun Jun 05 2005 04:31 PM
. * * Re: near 42506 GuppieGrouper   Sun Jun 05 2005 04:47 PM
. * * Trouble next weekend? Rob_M   Sun Jun 05 2005 07:20 PM
. * * Re: Trouble next weekend? Storm Cooper   Sun Jun 05 2005 07:27 PM
. * * Re: Trouble next weekend? Clark   Sun Jun 05 2005 09:27 PM
. * * Re: Trouble next weekend? HanKFranK   Sun Jun 05 2005 11:05 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Domino   Wed Jun 01 2005 10:53 PM
. * * New Feature: Met Blogs LI Phil   Wed Jun 01 2005 11:49 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today tornado00   Wed Jun 01 2005 01:33 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today ftlaudbob   Wed Jun 01 2005 01:43 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Kevin   Wed Jun 01 2005 02:09 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today ftlaudbob   Wed Jun 01 2005 02:18 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Keith234   Wed Jun 01 2005 03:19 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Clark   Wed Jun 01 2005 06:28 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Keith234   Wed Jun 01 2005 07:46 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 01 2005 09:05 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today h2ocean   Wed Jun 01 2005 10:01 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today GuppieGrouper   Wed Jun 01 2005 09:58 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today ftlaudbob   Wed Jun 01 2005 10:33 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today doug   Wed Jun 01 2005 06:58 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Bloodstar   Wed Jun 01 2005 02:31 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today ftlaudbob   Wed Jun 01 2005 02:40 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Clark   Wed Jun 01 2005 03:14 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Steve hirschb.   Wed Jun 01 2005 03:25 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Fletch   Wed Jun 01 2005 04:36 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Heather   Wed Jun 01 2005 05:10 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Kevin   Wed Jun 01 2005 05:15 PM
. * * Bermuda High-Basic Explanation LI Phil   Wed Jun 01 2005 05:29 PM
. * * Experts=Grain of Salt wxman007   Wed Jun 01 2005 06:14 PM
. * * Re: Experts=Grain of Salt Terra   Wed Jun 01 2005 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Experts=Grain of Salt Clark   Wed Jun 01 2005 11:56 PM
. * * Any Chances Cocoa Beach   Thu Jun 02 2005 07:41 AM
. * * Re: Any Chances tpratch   Thu Jun 02 2005 08:20 AM
. * * Re: Any Chances Steve hirschb.   Thu Jun 02 2005 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Any Chances Clark   Thu Jun 02 2005 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Any Chances Steve hirschb.   Fri Jun 03 2005 07:56 AM
. * * Interesting Flareup LI Phil   Thu Jun 02 2005 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup Clark   Thu Jun 02 2005 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup HanKFranK   Thu Jun 02 2005 08:33 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup doug   Fri Jun 03 2005 11:04 AM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup Clark   Fri Jun 03 2005 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup MissBecky   Fri Jun 03 2005 05:33 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup James88   Fri Jun 03 2005 05:40 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup Rich B   Fri Jun 03 2005 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup HanKFranK   Fri Jun 03 2005 06:40 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup Lysis   Fri Jun 03 2005 07:39 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup LI Phil   Fri Jun 03 2005 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup B.C.Francis   Fri Jun 03 2005 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup hockeyucf   Fri Jun 03 2005 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup Clark   Fri Jun 03 2005 03:19 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup B.C.Francis   Fri Jun 03 2005 03:01 PM
. * * JK on Barometer Bob's Show TONIGHT 8:30 ET LI Phil   Thu Jun 02 2005 06:42 PM
. * * Re: JK on Barometer Bob's Show TONIGHT 8:30 ET wxman007   Thu Jun 02 2005 06:51 PM
. * * Re: JK on Barometer Bob's Show TONIGHT 8:30 ET LI Phil   Thu Jun 02 2005 06:53 PM
. * * Re: JK on Barometer Bob's Show TONIGHT 8:30 ET Storm Cooper   Thu Jun 02 2005 06:57 PM
. * * Picture of the Day Cocoa Beach   Thu Jun 02 2005 08:19 AM
. * * Very busy for June 1 MapMaster   Wed Jun 01 2005 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Very busy for June 1 dem05   Wed Jun 01 2005 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Experts=Grain of Salt Kevin   Wed Jun 01 2005 06:23 PM
. * * Jim Williams' Show LI Phil   Wed Jun 01 2005 05:51 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Lysis   Wed Jun 01 2005 02:58 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today tpratch   Wed Jun 01 2005 03:07 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Bloodstar   Wed Jun 01 2005 02:51 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today B.C.Francis   Wed Jun 01 2005 06:54 AM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today LI Phil   Wed Jun 01 2005 12:41 AM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today ZooKeeper   Wed Jun 01 2005 09:51 AM
. * * well ahead HanKFranK   Wed Jun 01 2005 12:02 PM
. * * Re: well ahead rmbjoe1954   Wed Jun 01 2005 12:51 PM
. * * Re: well ahead Steve hirschb.   Wed Jun 01 2005 12:40 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Frank P   Wed Jun 01 2005 07:28 AM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Sat Jun 04 2005 07:47 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today dem05   Sat Jun 04 2005 07:57 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Heather   Wed Jun 01 2005 07:55 AM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today AgentB   Wed Jun 01 2005 01:14 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Cycloneye11   Wed Jun 01 2005 08:41 AM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Artsy Fartsy   Wed Jun 01 2005 09:12 AM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today vvvteddybearvvv   Wed Jun 01 2005 01:21 AM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today James88   Wed Jun 01 2005 05:29 AM

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