News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks Previous   Index   Next   Flat

Clark Meteorologist Reged: Wed Posts: 1710 Re: Trouble next weekend?       Sun Jun 05 2005 09:27 PM Edit   Reply   Quote   Quick Reply   Both regions in which these disturbances are pegged are projected by the models to be just south of the subtropical jet and moving northward into its vicinity with time, making any significant development unlikely. More likely than not, assuming a surface feature develops, these will be regions that look more impressive than they really are, featuring a good bit of convection but no real tropical punch. This would be assisted by being in the right entrance region of the jet, generally a favorable region for rising motion (and in a general sense, convective activity). Cyclone phase analyses only pick up the one N of PR and show a hybrid structure at development trending even more so through time. Both features -- whatever comes of them -- will get picked up by midlatitude troughs and taken towards the north and east. From continuity & looking at the prog charts, the low off of PR is expected to come from the tropical wave currently in the vicinity of the islands (and just east of an upper-level low/TUTT cell) as that upper low retrogrades to the east and weakens. The feature into the Gulf looks to be an artifact of a broader area of low pressure that becomes "organized" over the vicinity of where Adrian made landfall. Both would quickly become engulfed by midlatitude disturbances after development, if they don't become part of that flow beforehand. I don't expect any tropical development out of either, but some extratropical development might occur....chance of subtropical development maybe with the PR system, if it develops & then manages to stick around in the central Atlantic for some time. It might do that -- but I'd favor extratropical development over all scenarios for now, given the forecast evolution of the upper-level regime as of now. Not too keen on the Gulf scenario; it may end up being a repeat of what we've got going on now (and have for the past few days) in Florida, and that's about the best I'd call for on that one right now. Sit tight, folks. The season will get started in earnest before we know it...but I don't think either of these systems will be the ones that do it. Watch the one near PR, but don't get your hopes up yet...IMO. -------------------- Current Tropical Model Output Plots (or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!) Post Extras

Entire topic Subject Posted by Posted on The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today MikeC Sun Jun 05 2005 09:27 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Toto   Sun Jun 05 2005 11:09 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today GuppieGrouper   Mon Jun 06 2005 06:11 AM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today tornado00   Mon Jun 06 2005 09:17 AM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Wingman51   Mon Jun 06 2005 12:33 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Clark   Mon Jun 06 2005 12:58 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Wingman51   Mon Jun 06 2005 01:01 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today doug   Mon Jun 06 2005 01:26 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today mysticalmooons   Mon Jun 06 2005 01:47 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today doug   Mon Jun 06 2005 02:11 PM Interesting Colleen A.   Mon Jun 06 2005 03:36 PM Re: Interesting rmbjoe1954   Mon Jun 06 2005 04:23 PM Re: Interesting Ryan   Mon Jun 06 2005 06:24 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Londovir   Sat Jun 04 2005 02:29 AM NDBC has some new bouys, here's your link Frank P   Sat Jun 04 2005 08:53 AM Re: NDBC has some new bouys, here's your link Cycloneye11   Sat Jun 04 2005 05:51 PM Re: NDBC has some new bouys, here's your link Frank P   Sat Jun 04 2005 06:35 PM Re: NDBC has some new bouys, here's your link Kandis McClung   Sat Jun 04 2005 01:46 PM Re: NDBC has some new bouys, here's your link Keith234   Sat Jun 04 2005 04:30 PM Re: NDBC has some new bouys, here's your link Heather   Sun Jun 05 2005 01:12 PM near 42506 mikeG   Sun Jun 05 2005 01:44 PM Re: near 42506 stormchazer   Sun Jun 05 2005 04:31 PM Re: near 42506 GuppieGrouper   Sun Jun 05 2005 04:47 PM Trouble next weekend? Rob_M   Sun Jun 05 2005 07:20 PM Re: Trouble next weekend? Storm Cooper   Sun Jun 05 2005 07:27 PM Re: Trouble next weekend? Clark   Sun Jun 05 2005 09:27 PM Re: Trouble next weekend? HanKFranK   Sun Jun 05 2005 11:05 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Domino   Wed Jun 01 2005 10:53 PM New Feature: Met Blogs LI Phil   Wed Jun 01 2005 11:49 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today tornado00   Wed Jun 01 2005 01:33 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today ftlaudbob   Wed Jun 01 2005 01:43 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Kevin   Wed Jun 01 2005 02:09 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today ftlaudbob   Wed Jun 01 2005 02:18 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Keith234   Wed Jun 01 2005 03:19 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Clark   Wed Jun 01 2005 06:28 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Keith234   Wed Jun 01 2005 07:46 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today danielw   Wed Jun 01 2005 09:05 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today h2ocean   Wed Jun 01 2005 10:01 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today GuppieGrouper   Wed Jun 01 2005 09:58 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today ftlaudbob   Wed Jun 01 2005 10:33 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today doug   Wed Jun 01 2005 06:58 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Bloodstar   Wed Jun 01 2005 02:31 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today ftlaudbob   Wed Jun 01 2005 02:40 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Clark   Wed Jun 01 2005 03:14 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Steve hirschb.   Wed Jun 01 2005 03:25 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Fletch   Wed Jun 01 2005 04:36 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Heather   Wed Jun 01 2005 05:10 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Kevin   Wed Jun 01 2005 05:15 PM Bermuda High-Basic Explanation LI Phil   Wed Jun 01 2005 05:29 PM Experts=Grain of Salt wxman007   Wed Jun 01 2005 06:14 PM Re: Experts=Grain of Salt Terra   Wed Jun 01 2005 09:04 PM Re: Experts=Grain of Salt Clark   Wed Jun 01 2005 11:56 PM Any Chances Cocoa Beach   Thu Jun 02 2005 07:41 AM Re: Any Chances tpratch   Thu Jun 02 2005 08:20 AM Re: Any Chances Steve hirschb.   Thu Jun 02 2005 12:37 PM Re: Any Chances Clark   Thu Jun 02 2005 01:32 PM Re: Any Chances Steve hirschb.   Fri Jun 03 2005 07:56 AM Interesting Flareup LI Phil   Thu Jun 02 2005 03:24 PM Re: Interesting Flareup Clark   Thu Jun 02 2005 04:18 PM Re: Interesting Flareup HanKFranK   Thu Jun 02 2005 08:33 PM Re: Interesting Flareup doug   Fri Jun 03 2005 11:04 AM Re: Interesting Flareup Clark   Fri Jun 03 2005 01:19 PM Re: Interesting Flareup MissBecky   Fri Jun 03 2005 05:33 PM Re: Interesting Flareup James88   Fri Jun 03 2005 05:40 PM Re: Interesting Flareup Rich B   Fri Jun 03 2005 05:53 PM Re: Interesting Flareup HanKFranK   Fri Jun 03 2005 06:40 PM Re: Interesting Flareup Lysis   Fri Jun 03 2005 07:39 PM Re: Interesting Flareup LI Phil   Fri Jun 03 2005 08:40 PM Re: Interesting Flareup B.C.Francis   Fri Jun 03 2005 01:31 PM Re: Interesting Flareup hockeyucf   Fri Jun 03 2005 01:42 PM Re: Interesting Flareup Clark   Fri Jun 03 2005 03:19 PM Re: Interesting Flareup B.C.Francis   Fri Jun 03 2005 03:01 PM JK on Barometer Bob's Show TONIGHT 8:30 ET LI Phil   Thu Jun 02 2005 06:42 PM Re: JK on Barometer Bob's Show TONIGHT 8:30 ET wxman007   Thu Jun 02 2005 06:51 PM Re: JK on Barometer Bob's Show TONIGHT 8:30 ET LI Phil   Thu Jun 02 2005 06:53 PM Re: JK on Barometer Bob's Show TONIGHT 8:30 ET Storm Cooper   Thu Jun 02 2005 06:57 PM Picture of the Day Cocoa Beach   Thu Jun 02 2005 08:19 AM Very busy for June 1 MapMaster   Wed Jun 01 2005 07:00 PM Re: Very busy for June 1 dem05   Wed Jun 01 2005 07:32 PM Re: Experts=Grain of Salt Kevin   Wed Jun 01 2005 06:23 PM Jim Williams' Show LI Phil   Wed Jun 01 2005 05:51 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Lysis   Wed Jun 01 2005 02:58 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today tpratch   Wed Jun 01 2005 03:07 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Bloodstar   Wed Jun 01 2005 02:51 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today B.C.Francis   Wed Jun 01 2005 06:54 AM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today LI Phil   Wed Jun 01 2005 12:41 AM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today ZooKeeper   Wed Jun 01 2005 09:51 AM well ahead HanKFranK   Wed Jun 01 2005 12:02 PM Re: well ahead rmbjoe1954   Wed Jun 01 2005 12:51 PM Re: well ahead Steve hirschb.   Wed Jun 01 2005 12:40 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Frank P   Wed Jun 01 2005 07:28 AM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Sat Jun 04 2005 07:47 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today dem05   Sat Jun 04 2005 07:57 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Heather   Wed Jun 01 2005 07:55 AM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today AgentB   Wed Jun 01 2005 01:14 PM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Cycloneye11   Wed Jun 01 2005 08:41 AM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Artsy Fartsy   Wed Jun 01 2005 09:12 AM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today vvvteddybearvvv   Wed Jun 01 2005 01:21 AM Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today James88   Wed Jun 01 2005 05:29 AM

Extra information 0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum. Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw  Forum Permissions       You cannot start new topics       You cannot reply to topics       HTML is disabled       UBBCode is enabled Rating: Thread views: 26636 Rate this thread Choose rating 1 star 2 star 3 star 4 star 5 star Jump to *News Talkback* -----   2024 News Talkbacks*General Discussion* -----   2024 Forecast Lounge   2024 Storm Forum   The Tropics Today   Other Storm Basins   Hurricane History   Hurricane Ask/Tell   Site Updates, Suggestions and Questions   Disaster Forum*General Discussion* -----   Comedy Shop   Everything and Nothing   Other Weather Events*Weather Bloggers* -----   Blogger Discussion   Resident Meteorologist Discussions   Weather Blog Bios/Links*Archives 2020s* -----   2022 News Talkbacks   2022 Storm Forum   2022 Forecast Lounge   2023 News Talkbacks   2023 Forecast Lounge   2023 Storm Forum   2021 News Talkbacks   2020 News Talkbacks*Archives 2010s* -----   2015 News Talkbacks   2015 Storm Forum   2015 Forecast Lounge   2017 Forecast Lounge   2013 Storm Forum   2013 Forecast Lounge   2012 Storm Forum   2012 Forecast Lounge   2011 News Talkbacks   2016 News Talkbacks   2017 News Talkbacks   2018 News Talkbacks   2019 News Talkbacks   2013 News Talkbacks   2014 News Talkbacks   2010 News Talkbacks   2010 Storm Forum   2010 Forecast Lounge*Archives 2002-2009* -----   2009 Storm Forum   2009 Forecast Lounge   2008 News Talkbacks   2008 Storm Forum   2008 Forecast Lounge   2007 News Talkbacks   2007 Storm Forum   2006 Storm Forum   2006 Forecast Lounge   2005 News Talkbacks   2005 Storm Forum   2004 News Talkbacks   2003 Storm Forum   2002 News Articles and Talkback   2002 Storm Forum

---

Mobile Home - Login - Normal Flhurricane Site
This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
Generated May 11, 2024, 4:07:47 AM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center