Still gotta get the trough in the Gulf of Mexico to weaken or lift out some. What is happening is that it is digging southward into the Bay of Campeche, though it is narrowing in scope & extent east-west. Narrow troughs are better for intensification -- in fact, narrowing of a trough such that it matches the scale of the tropical cyclone is one of the big factors for rapid intensification of mature storms -- but this one is likely too close still to the system.
An upper-level low has formed over the Yucutan Peninsula over the past few hours. Another, weaker one is located between there and Tampa. What we'll probably need to see for development is for the trough to cut off and retrograde westward in the Gulf, allowing the ridge to build in. The narrowing of the trough is a sign this might be trying to happen. Wind shear in the region is stronger than it was 24hr ago, but weaker than 12hr ago. The core of strongest winds to the west is weaker than it has been in some time, though.
Give it time, and we might see something. Still at least a day and probably closer to 2 away, though. Recon going out there tomorrow is a good sign; the fact that the second one in the report is listed as "cyclone" doesn't mean a whole lot as of yet. It shows they anticipate that it might develop, but those naming classifiers don't mean a whole lot until something actually happens.
For more -- see the blog article on the front page. As I mentioned to Jason earlier, I'd give this one about a 60% shot at organizing into something. At the very least, it's something to watch...but not too closely! We'll have plenty of time to do that once it develops & with other storms later in the year.
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