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Clark Meteorologist Reged: Wed Posts: 1710 Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed       Thu Jun 09 2005 01:09 AM Edit   Reply   Quote   Quick Reply   mysticalmooons -- with the current convective structure, there is always the possibility of the center reforming nearer to the deep convection as/if/when the storm attempts to become better organized. That is actually common with many weak and/or sheared storms and is often seen when there is a broad area of low pressure, such as with TD 1. However, as of yet there isn't much indication of this happening: low-level center still appears to be on the west side of the system. But, the current organization to the bands & somewhat natural tendency for storms to try to become better organized hints that unless we see some development near the center soon, we could well see this occur with TD 1 as well. Aside: convection on the west side of the storm died off several hours ago (first indicated by an outflow boundary being ejected towards the west from the complex, followed by the collapse of the convection). This hints that we might not see a lot of convective development near the current center for the time being, due to a somewhat stabilized environment. Given some time, though, maybe 6-12h more, the environment should have sufficiently recovered for new convective development to occur. Ultimate impact of a reformation towards the east, with regards to track: probably would result in the storm ending up a bit more to the east at landfall, but probably not dramatically so. Things have the tendency to even out with time, despite the inability of the models to capture all of the inner processes tropical cyclones go through, as the overall flow regime at mid & upper levels should be more or less the same given a 1-2 deg jump to the east. Ultimately though, the main changes come to the track & intensity over the first day -- more to the east and stronger due to better organization, respectively. Hope this helps answer things. We'll know a lot more in 12-18hr as to what this storm is going to do...especially once the big jets get out there to sample the storm & its environment. -------------------- Current Tropical Model Output Plots (or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!) Post Extras

Entire topic Subject Posted by Posted on Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean Clark Thu Jun 09 2005 01:09 AM Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean Domino   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:42 PM Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean Jeffmidtown   Wed Jun 08 2005 11:04 PM Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean Droop31   Wed Jun 08 2005 11:24 PM Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean Rabbit   Wed Jun 08 2005 11:46 PM Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean cyclone_head   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:36 PM Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean Droop31   Wed Jun 08 2005 05:35 PM Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean BigTK99   Wed Jun 08 2005 05:45 PM Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean LI Phil   Wed Jun 08 2005 05:17 PM Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean Steve   Wed Jun 08 2005 05:45 PM Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean *DELETED* Beaujolais   Wed Jun 08 2005 05:49 PM Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track Storm Cooper   Wed Jun 08 2005 05:51 PM Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track rmbjoe1954   Wed Jun 08 2005 08:05 PM Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track wxman007   Wed Jun 08 2005 08:36 PM Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track Colleen A.   Wed Jun 08 2005 08:31 PM Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track dem05   Wed Jun 08 2005 08:15 PM Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track Clark   Wed Jun 08 2005 08:43 PM Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track Orlando, FL   Wed Jun 08 2005 05:57 PM Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track Rick on boat in Mobile   Wed Jun 08 2005 06:02 PM Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track HanKFranK   Wed Jun 08 2005 06:40 PM Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track Droop31   Wed Jun 08 2005 06:35 PM Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track GuppieGrouper   Wed Jun 08 2005 06:33 PM Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track LI Phil   Wed Jun 08 2005 06:40 PM Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track wxman007   Wed Jun 08 2005 06:52 PM Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track Droop31   Wed Jun 08 2005 07:09 PM NWS Posts tropical storm warning mysticalmooons   Wed Jun 08 2005 07:18 PM Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning Jamiewx   Wed Jun 08 2005 07:21 PM Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning danielw   Wed Jun 08 2005 07:34 PM Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning mysticalmooons   Wed Jun 08 2005 07:26 PM Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning HanKFranK   Wed Jun 08 2005 07:36 PM Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning Rabbit   Wed Jun 08 2005 07:35 PM Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning hurricanejhkj   Wed Jun 08 2005 07:33 PM Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning Jamiewx   Wed Jun 08 2005 07:42 PM Is this the LLC? Colleen A.   Wed Jun 08 2005 08:45 PM Re: Is this the LLC? wxman007   Wed Jun 08 2005 08:54 PM Re: Is this the LLC? Colleen A.   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:01 PM Re: Is this the LLC? danielw   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:02 PM Re: Is this the LLC? *DELETED* hurricanhoij   Wed Jun 08 2005 09:11 PM Re: Is this the LLC? wxman007   Wed Jun 08 2005 09:16 PM Re: Is this the LLC? Droop31   Wed Jun 08 2005 09:24 PM Re: Is this the LLC? Terra   Wed Jun 08 2005 09:33 PM Musings and my take on the depression Bloodstar   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:08 PM Re: Musings and my take on the depression javlin   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:52 PM Re: Musings and my take on the depression wxman007   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:16 PM Re: Musings and my take on the depression Storm Cooper   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:24 PM Re: Musings and my take on the depression RedingtonBeachGuy   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:37 PM Chat Room is open... wxman007   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:39 PM Re: Musings and my take on the depression MikeC   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:32 PM Re: Musings and my take on the depression Rabbit   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:34 PM Re: where is this? JohnM   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:39 PM Re: Is this the LLC? LI Phil   Wed Jun 08 2005 09:49 PM Re: Is this the LLC? Droop31   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:02 PM where to post?? ftlaudbob   Wed Jun 08 2005 09:55 PM Re: where to post?? Colleen A.   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:06 PM Hype Machine At Full Speed StormHound   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:08 PM Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed Colleen A.   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:20 PM Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed Tazmanian93   Thu Jun 09 2005 12:09 AM Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed mysticalmooons   Thu Jun 09 2005 12:40 AM Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed Clark   Thu Jun 09 2005 01:09 AM reformation HanKFranK   Thu Jun 09 2005 01:23 AM Re: reformation Droop31   Thu Jun 09 2005 01:29 AM Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed mysticalmooons   Thu Jun 09 2005 01:21 AM Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed Clark   Thu Jun 09 2005 01:24 AM Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed mysticalmooons   Thu Jun 09 2005 01:29 AM Re: recon decoder vvvteddybearvvv   Thu Jun 09 2005 01:37 AM Re: recon decoder Rabbit   Thu Jun 09 2005 02:58 AM Looking better WeatherNLU   Thu Jun 09 2005 02:53 AM Re: Looking better Droop31   Thu Jun 09 2005 02:59 AM Re: Looking better Kevin   Thu Jun 09 2005 03:08 AM Re: 6 AM Quick Look danielw   Thu Jun 09 2005 06:11 AM Re: 6 AM Quick Look hurricane_run   Thu Jun 09 2005 06:19 AM It's now Tropical Storm Arlene Cycloneye11   Thu Jun 09 2005 07:28 AM Re: Looking better Hurric   Thu Jun 09 2005 06:10 AM Prototype Model maps SkeetoBite   Thu Jun 09 2005 01:01 AM Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed Tazmanian93   Thu Jun 09 2005 12:57 AM Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed mysticalmooons   Thu Jun 09 2005 01:01 AM Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed Tazmanian93   Thu Jun 09 2005 01:19 AM Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed StormHound   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:40 PM Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed LI Phil   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:47 PM Re: 11pm adv MikeG   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:49 PM Re: 11pm adv Southern4sure   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:52 PM Re: 11pm adv Southern4sure   Wed Jun 08 2005 11:01 PM Re: where to post?? LI Phil   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:04 PM Re: where to post?? Colleen A.   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:10 PM Re: Is this the LLC? Storm Cooper   Wed Jun 08 2005 09:55 PM Re: Is this the LLC? javlin   Wed Jun 08 2005 09:48 PM Re: Is this the LLC? Frank P   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:09 PM Re: Is this the LLC? danielw   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:14 PM Re: Is this the LLC? Frank P   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:20 PM Re: Is this the LLC? vvvteddybearvvv   Wed Jun 08 2005 09:57 PM Re: Is this the LLC? Colleen A.   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:03 PM Re: Is this the LLC? javlin   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:03 PM Re: 00z runs JohnM   Wed Jun 08 2005 09:48 PM Re: 00z runs wxman007   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:03 PM Re: Is this the LLC? wxman007   Wed Jun 08 2005 09:48 PM Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track Steve unplugged   Wed Jun 08 2005 06:45 PM Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track Steve-ack   Wed Jun 08 2005 06:46 PM Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track Rich B   Wed Jun 08 2005 05:55 PM

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