News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks Previous   Index   Next   Flat

Clark Meteorologist Reged: Wed Posts: 1710 Re:5 AM Advisory       Sat Jun 11 2005 05:42 AM Edit   Reply   Quote   Quick Reply   We've got a little bit of a quandry on our hands this morning. The convective trends of last night continued into the early morning hours -- oh, about 3a ET -- but what that did allow was for the center to move into the midst of what convection remained. Now, nearing the diurnal convective maximum and the warmest waters in the Gulf, Arlene is making a fairly nice recovery, with a CDO-pulse feature near and over the center of circulation. Recon pressure is 991mb and the overall intensity of the storm is essentially the same as its peak intensity from yesterday -- pressure only up 2mb and 850mb height only up 10 meters from 1349m to 1359m (850mb height gives you an indication of the intensity of the storm: the lower the 850mb height, the deeper the storm). Danny, I will have to disagree with you on the recon/intensity question...one of the biggest reasons we have recon is because those wind/height relationships and satellite estimates don't always work very well. Nevertheless, shear isn't increasing all that much and there appears to be convective support around much of the storm. As called for last night, Arlene has the potential to become a hurricane before landfall, aided by the new convection and very warm SSTs over its path. Landfall is imminent within the next 12hr at or perhaps just slightly above its current intensity -- though as with many tropical cyclones, the strongest winds will ONLY be felt offshore, at the immediate coast, and in downbursts associated with heavy rain inland -- somewhere in the Mobile, AL area. -------------------- Current Tropical Model Output Plots (or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!) Post Extras

Entire topic Subject Posted by Posted on Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight MikeC Sat Jun 11 2005 05:42 AM 11/1415Z - Arlene Update berrywr   Sat Jun 11 2005 10:20 AM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight Orlando, FL   Sat Jun 11 2005 07:33 AM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight FlaMommy   Sat Jun 11 2005 07:47 AM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight h2ocean   Sat Jun 11 2005 09:47 AM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight HCW   Sat Jun 11 2005 09:53 AM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight Storm Cooper   Sat Jun 11 2005 10:17 AM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight GuppieGrouper   Sat Jun 11 2005 07:42 AM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight Clark   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:37 PM Tornado Watch Jamiewx   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:14 PM Re: Tornado Watch jth home   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:18 PM Re: Tornado Watch mbfly   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:45 PM Re: Tornado Watch HCW   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:57 PM Re: Tornado Watch FlaMommy   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:09 PM Re: Tornado Watch Littlebit   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:14 PM Re: Tornado Watch FlaMommy   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:21 PM Re: Tornado Watch Littlebit   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:26 PM Re: Tornado Watch Heather   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:26 PM Re: Tornado Watch jws1332   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:28 PM Re: Tornado Watch Londovir   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:31 PM Re: Tornado Watch JustMe   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:35 PM Re: Tornado Watch Rabbit   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:34 PM Re: Tornado Watch Clark   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:40 PM Re: Tornado Watch Droop31   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:40 PM varmint voodoo HanKFranK   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:43 PM long island HanKFranK   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:45 PM Re: long island LI Phil   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:51 PM Re: Tornado Watch LI Phil   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:38 PM Re: Tornado Watch jws1332   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:33 PM Re: Tornado Watch FlaMommy   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:30 PM Re: Tornado Watch LI Phil   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:36 PM Long Island? Ryan   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:42 PM Re: Long Island? Clark   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:44 PM Re: Long Island? mikeG   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:45 PM Re: Long Island? Clark   Sat Jun 11 2005 12:04 AM Re: Long Island? MikeC   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:51 PM arlene's last mile HanKFranK   Sat Jun 11 2005 12:09 AM the dreaded varmint voodoo hex LI Phil   Sat Jun 11 2005 12:16 AM Re: the dreaded varmint voodoo hex danielw   Sat Jun 11 2005 12:30 AM Re: 10 PM Discussion and Radar danielw   Sat Jun 11 2005 12:41 AM Re: 10 PM Discussion and Radar Rabbit   Sat Jun 11 2005 12:46 AM Re: 10 PM Discussion and Radar danielw   Sat Jun 11 2005 12:54 AM Re: 10 PM Discussion and Radar Storm Hunter   Sat Jun 11 2005 01:56 AM moving NW Frank P   Sat Jun 11 2005 01:58 AM Re: moving NW Storm Hunter   Sat Jun 11 2005 02:01 AM Re: moving NW danielw   Sat Jun 11 2005 02:23 AM Re: moving NW Storm Hunter   Sat Jun 11 2005 02:33 AM Re: moving NW Rabbit   Sat Jun 11 2005 02:40 AM Re: moving NW Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Sat Jun 11 2005 03:59 AM Re:Don't let your Guard Down Yet! danielw   Sat Jun 11 2005 04:11 AM Re:Don't let your Guard Down Yet! Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Sat Jun 11 2005 04:36 AM Re:Don't let your Guard Down Yet! danielw   Sat Jun 11 2005 04:46 AM Re:5 AM Advisory danielw   Sat Jun 11 2005 04:53 AM Re:5 AM Advisory James88   Sat Jun 11 2005 05:25 AM Re:5 AM Advisory Clark   Sat Jun 11 2005 05:42 AM Re:5 AM Advisory LadyStorm   Sat Jun 11 2005 06:21 AM Affects In Central Florida recmod   Sat Jun 11 2005 06:14 AM An Eyewall Forming?? recmod   Sat Jun 11 2005 06:21 AM Re: An Eyewall Forming?? wxornot   Sat Jun 11 2005 07:25 AM Re: An Eyewall Forming?? Keith234   Sat Jun 11 2005 07:49 AM Arlene at 8:00 LI Phil   Sat Jun 11 2005 08:05 AM Re: Arlene at 8:00 Storm Cooper   Sat Jun 11 2005 08:28 AM Re: Arlene at 8:00 rmbjoe1954   Sat Jun 11 2005 09:30 AM Re: An Eyewall Forming?? FlaMommy   Sat Jun 11 2005 07:52 AM Re: moving NW Hurricane54   Sat Jun 11 2005 03:12 AM just when you think its going one way... Rabbit   Sat Jun 11 2005 03:40 AM 11/0745Z - Arlene Update - MS/LA landfall? berrywr   Sat Jun 11 2005 03:36 AM Re: moving NW Frank P   Sat Jun 11 2005 02:06 AM Re: moving NW mojorox   Sat Jun 11 2005 02:11 AM Re: moving NW Frank P   Sat Jun 11 2005 02:15 AM Re: moving NW hurricane34   Sat Jun 11 2005 02:22 AM Re: moving NW Storm Hunter   Sat Jun 11 2005 02:21 AM Re: 10 PM Discussion and Radar Droop31   Sat Jun 11 2005 01:50 AM Re: 10 PM Discussion and Radar HCW   Sat Jun 11 2005 01:58 AM Re: Arlene danielw   Sat Jun 11 2005 01:56 AM Re: Tornado Watch FlaMommy   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:42 PM IR Terra   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:18 PM Re: Tornado Watch Londovir   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:11 PM Arlene a Tropical Storm still Jamiewx   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:55 PM Re: Tornado Watch Heather   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:53 PM slow pitch HanKFranK   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:45 PM Re: slow pitch LI Phil   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:56 PM Re: slow pitch wxman007   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:08 PM Re: slow pitch RedingtonBeachGuy   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:18 PM Re: slow pitch jth home   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:11 PM Re: slow pitch wxman007   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:27 PM Re: slow pitch Clark   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:55 PM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight leetdan   Fri Jun 10 2005 08:54 PM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight hurricane_run   Fri Jun 10 2005 08:43 PM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight WeatherNLU   Fri Jun 10 2005 08:41 PM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight Colleen A.   Fri Jun 10 2005 08:54 PM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight jth home   Fri Jun 10 2005 08:56 PM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight Keith234   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:17 PM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight Jeffmidtown   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:22 PM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight Keith234   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:31 PM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight LI Phil   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:24 PM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight bob67   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:21 PM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight jth offline   Fri Jun 10 2005 08:44 PM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight HCW   Fri Jun 10 2005 08:52 PM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight hurricane_run   Fri Jun 10 2005 08:52 PM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight kelcot   Fri Jun 10 2005 08:51 PM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight mbfly   Fri Jun 10 2005 08:44 PM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight Storm Cooper   Fri Jun 10 2005 08:51 PM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight LI Phil   Fri Jun 10 2005 08:58 PM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight Storm Cooper   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:01 PM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight LI Phil   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:12 PM Re: I see a Trend javlin   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:05 PM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight HCW   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:29 PM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight Keith234   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:39 PM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight Storm Cooper   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:32 PM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight Prospero   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:39 PM TWC Arlene Coverage LI Phil   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:38 PM OT Keith234   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:43 PM Re: OT Ryan   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:30 PM Re: OT Londovir   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:44 PM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight bob67   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:30 PM Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight mbfly   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:40 PM

Extra information 0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum. Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw  Forum Permissions       You cannot start new topics       You cannot reply to topics       HTML is disabled       UBBCode is enabled Rating: Thread views: 21529 Rate this thread Choose rating 1 star 2 star 3 star 4 star 5 star Jump to *News Talkback* -----   2024 News Talkbacks*General Discussion* -----   2024 Forecast Lounge   2024 Storm Forum   The Tropics Today   Other Storm Basins   Hurricane History   Hurricane Ask/Tell   Site Updates, Suggestions and Questions   Disaster Forum*General Discussion* -----   Comedy Shop   Everything and Nothing   Other Weather Events*Weather Bloggers* -----   Blogger Discussion   Resident Meteorologist Discussions   Weather Blog Bios/Links*Archives 2020s* -----   2022 News Talkbacks   2022 Storm Forum   2022 Forecast Lounge   2023 News Talkbacks   2023 Forecast Lounge   2023 Storm Forum   2021 News Talkbacks   2020 News Talkbacks*Archives 2010s* -----   2015 News Talkbacks   2015 Storm Forum   2015 Forecast Lounge   2017 Forecast Lounge   2013 Storm Forum   2013 Forecast Lounge   2012 Storm Forum   2012 Forecast Lounge   2011 News Talkbacks   2016 News Talkbacks   2017 News Talkbacks   2018 News Talkbacks   2019 News Talkbacks   2013 News Talkbacks   2014 News Talkbacks   2010 News Talkbacks   2010 Storm Forum   2010 Forecast Lounge*Archives 2002-2009* -----   2009 Storm Forum   2009 Forecast Lounge   2008 News Talkbacks   2008 Storm Forum   2008 Forecast Lounge   2007 News Talkbacks   2007 Storm Forum   2006 Storm Forum   2006 Forecast Lounge   2005 News Talkbacks   2005 Storm Forum   2004 News Talkbacks   2003 Storm Forum   2002 News Articles and Talkback   2002 Storm Forum

---

Mobile Home - Login - Normal Flhurricane Site
This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
Generated May 18, 2024, 11:28:23 PM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center