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Review this link then see synoptic thinking below: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/epac-wv-loop.html

Down the road, the southern part of that old wave is leaving moisture in SW Carrib. Thunderstorms not as impressive, but activity is just hanging around down there. Furthermore and most importantly (and not just the ULL pulling north over and east of Florida), is the Upper Low over Southern Texas that is digging South. As the Upper low around florida moves north and the Texas low moves south, don't be surprised to see some ridging develop. As the Texas low continues to move south into Mexico and Western Gulf, this can create a classic development pattern for disturbances in the SW Carribean, which gradually work there way into the central and eastern gulf. On the weaker points...One may also want to note that moister upper and mid level air may also continue to enter the area down the road.

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I made this reference the other night. It appears that this mid-upper level evolution is occurring. I maintain the thinking that the NW Carribean is the place to watch. You will notice on todays Water Vapor that the Upper low did continue to dig south into Mexico and Western Gulf. Ridging is building into the Eastern and central gulf as well as the NW Carribean. In fact, the Canadian model is now showing the development of a system "a la" Arlene.
CMC Link: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bi...;hour=Animation
Water Vapor Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/epac-wv-loop.html

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